Labour could lose up to 1,850 councillors in local elections, polling expert predicts
Polls have closed in Scotland, Wales and parts of England following local elections that could be a pivotal moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Labor is expected to endure significant losses nationally, grappling with the challenges of Reform UK on the right and the increasingly prominent Green Party on the left.
Pollster Lord Robert Hayward has suggested that Labor could see a reduction of around 1,850 councilors in England.
In Wales, the party is expected to lose the national vote for the first time in over a century, while in Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to maintain its position as the largest party.
When voting ended, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy commented that the election was “tough”.
He said: “I don’t want to gloss over it, the message coming from the doorstep is that this is a tough election cycle.
“This is a series of by-elections where people are worried about the cost of living and want the Government to move forward faster.”
Mr Lammy added that although Labor had run a “positive campaign” the party’s “message” had been “overwhelmed by the politics of grievance”.
A national crackdown is also likely to reignite speculation about Sir Keir’s leadership of the party and the country.
Before the polls closed, The Times reported that Energy Secretary and former Labor leader Ed Miliband had privately called on the Prime Minister to set a timetable for his departure after the election.
He is said to be considering the leadership tendencies of other Cabinet ministers, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
Ms Rayner’s allies are confident she can win the support of the 81 MPs needed to mount a challenge; Mr Streeting is also said to have reached that number, but neither wanted to make the first move.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who was rumored to be planning to return to Westminster within weeks, backed out of speaking on Friday morning.
Mr Burnham was expected to speak at the second annual Festival of Childhood in Manchester the morning after the election, but on Thursday evening organizers said he was replaced by Caroline Simpson, group leader of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority.
But Mr Lammy insisted Sir Keir should remain in office, pointing to the poor local election results seen by other prime ministers who managed to win re-election.
He said: “I remember Tony Blair had very poor election results in 1999 after our great victory in 1997.
“David Cameron lost consecutive local elections while in office, but managed to win the 2015 election.
“So it’s not uncommon for voters to have a message in the midterm elections.”
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is set to make significant gains, building on last year’s local elections in which the party won nearly 700 councilors and took control of 10 authorities.
The Greens are also expected to do well, with new leader Zack Polanski predicting “record-breaking local elections” for the party, while Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats expect to make local gains for an eighth consecutive year.
Predicting gains in London, Newcastle, Sussex and Wales, Mr Polanski said: “The news from the doorstep suggests we will pick up seats not just from Labour, but from the Tories and Liberal Democrats up and down the country.”
Sir Ed said his party knocked on three million doors during the campaign, double the figure last year, and added: “In old Tory heartlands and old Labor strongholds, we are championing honesty and real change.”
But despite the improvement in party leader Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating, it could be another bad night for the Conservatives, with the party expected to lose further ground on Reform.
