Lebanon, nuclear tensions and Hormuz in focus ahead of U.S.-Iran talks
A woman walks past a digital screen showing news of USIran peace talks along a road in Islamabad on April 10, 2026.
Farooq Naeem | Afp | Getty Images
Delegates from the United States and Iran will begin talks in Pakistan on Saturday as major disagreements threaten to undermine a fragile two-week ceasefire.
Tehran has already accused Israel of violating ceasefire terms and putting the talks at risk because the IDF continues to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing more than 300 people there on Wednesday.
Although Lebanon was mentioned in the original ceasefire framework drafted by Pakistan, the US and Israel argue that it was not included in the agreement.
This fundamental disagreement threatens to undermine the negotiations. Peace in Lebanon is not explicitly included in the US’s 15-point plan, but is clearly referenced in Iran’s 10-point plan.
But Lebanon is not the only dispute between the two sides. Differences also remain over who will control the Strait of Hormuz and the future of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity.
War continues in Lebanon
Declaring a ceasefire on Wednesday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that clashes would pause across the region, including Lebanon.
Israel was quick to counter his claim, insisting the postponement would not extend to its northern neighbour, resuming its heaviest bombardment of the country in decades on Wednesday.
Iran responded by warning against further attacks, writing to X that its allies formed an ‘integral’ part of the ceasefire and that breaches carried ‘clear costs and STRONG’ repercussions.
“The Israeli government is not willing to see any rapprochement between the United States and Iran, and the war in Lebanon is one of the main drawcards that Netanyahu has in destabilizing any peace effort,” Maziyar Ghiabi, director of Persian Studies at the University of Exeter, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Friday. he said.
The Lebanese government reiterated its call to open direct negotiations with Israel to prevent further attacks on Beirut; Netanyahu has since accepted the offer.
The Lebanese front is likely to feature in discussions in Islamabad as its involvement in ending region-wide conflicts remains an open question.
Control of Hormuz
The question of who controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea route for oil and natural gas, has not yet been resolved.
Iran wants to gain full control over transit and charge fees to ships passing through the Persian Gulf, using its revenues to finance the country’s reconstruction.
Shipping companies are being asked to pay tolls in cryptocurrency in exchange for safe passage, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday morning.
Trump, on the other hand, said in his X post published on Tuesday that the ceasefire depends on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The potential for Iran to heavily tax ships is a major sticking point, a marine insurance executive who asked not to be named on the record told CNBC.
Such a move would upend decades of free access to the strait as an international waterway, forcing shipowners to pay huge fees or abandon the route altogether.
Control over the strait is Iran’s “biggest” trump card, Amrita Sen, founder of market intelligence platform Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” program on Thursday.
“I don’t think charging a fee is something that would be accepted by the Gulf Cooperation Council, Oman or any of its neighbors,” he said. “This is very, very difficult to accept, but generally speaking it’s something I don’t think Iran is going to give up.”
About nuclear enrichment
Another obstacle is the fate of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
Iran’s nuclear chief said on Thursday that the country’s enemies’ demands for zero enrichment were “wishful thinking.”
The Islamic Republic’s 10-point peace proposal includes the “right to enrich”, which was quickly rejected by Vice President J.D. Vance.
Although Iran has pledged to end its nuclear program, it is “unlikely” they will give up their enriched uranium stockpile, according to Chatham House MENA director Sanam Vakil.
“If President Trump gets assurances that Iran will allow inspectors back to its nuclear facilities, or what’s left of them, and that Iran will blend this enriched uranium, they will win,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“A verifiable, controlled nuclear deal is ultimately [Trump] I can sell it to the American people.”
Ultimately, disagreement over the basic building blocks of the ceasefire agreement could create an unstable basis on which to continue negotiations for a long-term resolution of the conflict.
