Super Bowl ad prediction market contracts raise insider trading worry

A version of this article first appeared with Alex Sherman in the CNBC Sport newsletter, delivering the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the world of sports and media. become a member to receive future editions straight to your inbox.

For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. You may make or lose money from them this year too.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently have open contracts regarding which companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, which will feature the match between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots and will be held on February 8 in Santa Clara, California. Users can trade whether Salesforce, Verizon or Coca-Cola will appear in the Super Bowl this year, for example.

While Polymarket’s trades are just a “Yes/No” bet, Kalshi’s “Who will appear in the big game ad before February 9, 2026?” with trades available for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, and Harry Styles. There are a few more sophisticated predictions, such as:

It’s a new milestone for the advertising industry’s biggest night. As the TV audience for the Super Bowl increases, the price of Super Bowl commercials increases each year. Last year’s match was watched by a record 127.7 million viewers. Broadcast by Fox, it generated approximately $7.5 million per 30-second commercial, with 10 or so commercials grossing over $8 million.

This year, NBC, which will air the game, has sold out its entire ad inventory, averaging $8 million per 30-second spot, according to Mark Marshall, NBC’s president of global advertising and partnerships; five to 10 ads sold for more than $10 million each. The closer a company buys ad space to the game, the more it pays.

Tech companies took the most spots in this year’s ranking, according to Marshall, but NBC defines tech relatively broadly: Uber Eats, for example, is considered a tech company. Only two automobile companies advertise during the game. About 40 percent of advertisers this year have never purchased a Super Bowl ad before, Marshall said.

But the introduction of prediction market platforms means Marshall has reason to keep the details close to the vest.

For those unfamiliar with how these prediction markets work, they basically trade like stocks, with the price of the contracts varying between $0 and $1. Contracts move up or down depending on the action.

For example, “Which brands will be advertising during the 2026 big game?” Spotify rose on Kalshi on January 19, rising from $0.35 to $0.69. As of Friday morning, the “Yes” contract price for Spotify was $0.37.

If your predicted outcome occurs, you will be paid $1 for each winning contract, minus fees.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi talk about the Super Bowl, such as “What songs will be played at the halftime show?”, “Who will attend the big game?” It also offers other prediction exchanges such as. (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?) and more traditional sports betting “stakes” like “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards.”

While direct sports predictions like rushing yards are unknown events, there are likely hundreds, even thousands, of employees who know whether their company plans to air a Super Bowl commercial. This makes some contracts eligible for insider trading.