Maine might boot Susan Collins. It could hurt state’s wallet for years

Maine could be packing for Sen. Susan Collins after this year’s midterm elections. This decision could bite the Pine Tree state’s bottom line in the coming years.

Collins, New England’s only federally elected Republican, is fighting his political life against Graham Platner, the Democratic upstart progressive candidate. Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, used anger and anti-establishment hostility toward President Donald Trump to skyrocket to the Democratic nomination and force Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to abandon her own Senate campaign within months. Yard signs dot the state’s backstreets and neighborhoods, and he’s leading in nearly every head-to-head poll against Collins.

The race, like most midterm contests, is a referendum on the president, who is underwater nationally in nearly every poll. And Collins, who has surprisingly beaten the odds repeatedly for the GOP despite New England’s solid shift to blue, is clearly running against the tide as voters weigh whether to give Trump a Senate majority in his final two years in the White House.

Senate control is objectively important. Democrats winning the Senate would likely prevent Trump from appointing a fourth and possibly fifth justice to the Supreme Court. This would also open the door to bicameral investigations into the president if Democrats prevail in the House. Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the Senate remain slim. A May 13 report from BCA Research projects Republicans with a narrower majority in the chamber.

But Maine voters face a particular dilemma when they head to the polls to decide Collins’ fate: Do they really want to clip the wings of their golden goose to loosen Trump’s grip on Washington?

Collins, 73, running for a sixth term, is at the peak of her power in the Senate, where seniority reigns supreme. The moderate Mainer chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee; It’s a highly coveted post that makes him the gatekeeper of the federal budget and the ability to send home billions of dollars while wielding enormous influence over the administration.

“This has been a classic political question for years,” said Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, who represents the state’s southern 1st Congressional District. He said it would be “hard to predict” whether voters would choose the certainty of seniority or the “politics of the day.”

In a phone interview with CNBC, Collins argued that he should be re-elected, arguing that he is positioned to offer more to Maine in a way that others cannot. And he did not take a harsh tone when it came to pointing out what the state would lose if he fell.

“Maine would lose a lot,” Collins said. “Even if by some miracle Graham Platner could be appointed to the Appropriations Committee as a freshman, it would take years for him to accumulate the seniority, experience, knowledge and clout needed to become subcommittee chairman.”

“Look how long it took me to become chairman of the full committee,” he said.

It took until 2025 for Collins, who was first elected in 1997, to assume the Appropriations gavel. The last senator from Maine to exercise this power before him was Frederick Hale, who ascended to the post in 1932. Republican Hale served in the legislature for 24 years.

Collins once had little in common with Hale. reportedly He beat a newspaper editor with a whip for publishing a provocative article about his mother. She is a staunch, moderate Republican and the first Republican woman to chair the committee. But he delivered a job in Washington that was known to pay dividends.

Since 2021, when congressionally directed spending or appropriations were restored, Collins’ office says it has secured nearly $1.5 billion for Maine. Approximately $429 million of that was allocated in fiscal year 2026 alone. While some MPs have quietly called for earmarks, Collins is speaking out and proud of herself.

“It had been 92 years since a Maine senator had been chairman of the Appropriations Committee, and so I realized I had a once-in-a-century opportunity to make a real difference for both the state of Maine and our country,” Collins said. he said. “I was able to secure almost $1.5 billion in congressionally directed spending projects for more than 650 projects statewide in all 16 counties.”

Collins talked about rehabilitating fire stations, which “are woefully outdated and often not healthy environments for firefighters.” It also received $9.6 million to build an interchange in the town of Cumberland, nearly $5 million to expand a rural health facility in Calais and $6 million for wastewater treatment improvements in Biddeford.

Platner’s campaign doesn’t dispute that Collins brought home the bacon. But his campaign argued in a statement that the funds don’t make a big difference for ordinary Mainers. The Platner campaign, which did not allow him to be interviewed, also pointed out the campaign donations Collins has received over the years.

“Senator Collins’ funding for projects in Maine pales in comparison to the funding she sends abroad to fight immoral wars and line the pockets of her billionaire donors,” a campaign spokesman said in a statement. “He’s taking money from Big Pharma while rural hospitals are closing. He’s taking money from Lockheed Martin and voting for another endless war. He’s voting against the congressional stock trading ban while profiting from stock trading.”

“No rumor will change the fact that after 30 years in Washington, Susan Collins is rich, life has gotten worse for working Mainers — and Mainers feel it,” the spokesman said.

Collins has also had her share of controversial votes over the years. He recently voted for the SAVE Act, which opponents say would make it harder for people to vote in US elections. Additionally, the landmark abortion rights case Roe v. He also voted to confirm the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who supported Wade’s overturn.

Mark Brewer, chair of the political science department at the University of Maine, said the money Collins brings in is significant.

“It’s huge in Maine, there’s no way around it,” Brewer said in an interview. “This is going to be a stick that Collins will use throughout the campaign. And there really isn’t a huge response to it.”

“It covers the state, and no matter your partisanship, these things matter and everyone knows it matters,” he said.

But Trump’s omnipresence stands in the way of Collins’ re-election. Voters are spooked by a second Trump administration, overwhelmingly electing Democrats in non-2025 elections and repeatedly posting low approval numbers in opinion polls.

For Democrats running in every state, including Maine, fighting Trump is the equivalent of any campaign. And Collins is generally a reliable Republican vote.

Collins has drawn Trump’s ire by occasionally voting against her own party. And he is known for questioning party orthodoxy before ultimately voting the party line. He did not vote for the President’s 2025 signature tax and spending policy measure, known as the Big Beautiful Bill. He voted to impeach Trump following the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. More recently, he voted with Democrats against Trump’s war with Iran; a shift after weeks of voting in favor of war.

“When Republicans are in doubt, they vote the exact opposite of Senator Susan Collins. Generally speaking, you can’t go wrong,” Trump said in his platform in July last year. Real Social. “Thank you for your interest in this matter and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

In the interview, Collins said she is approaching her touch-and-go relationship with Trump’s White House the same way she has approached past administrations.

“I’ve worked with five presidents and I don’t agree with any of them on everything, and this president is no different,” Collins said. “No matter who is in the White House, I have a track record of success and I always try to develop a relationship to work with members of the Cabinet.”

Collins also said most voters fail to see another important part of his job: forcing members of the Trump administration to reverse their decisions when they withdraw funding for a major project or do something else that would harm the state. One such example was “Operation Capture of the Day,” a short-lived crackdown on immigrants in Maine that was quickly abandoned due to pushbacks.

“The advanced operation stopped and it appears it stopped because Collins was searching,” Brewer said.

Because she was a vulnerable Republican in an election year, the White House accommodated Collins when they were reluctant to accommodate other blue or purple states, despite her rocky relationship with the president.

Collins warned that if voted out, that influence would disappear not just from Maine but the entire New England region.

“I am the only member of the current delegation who can do this,” Collins said.

He described a less headline-grabbing example in which the Trump administration cut funding for Maine Sea Grant, a research and business support program run by the University of Maine for the state’s famed fisheries. The program is administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which reports to the Commerce Department and Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“I am returning home from the annual fishermen forum… I receive a message that the administration is terminating the Sea Grant Program for the state of Maine,” Collins said. “So I immediately got on the phone with Secretary of Commerce Secretary Lutnick and told him how important this program is to our fishing industry, our lobstermen and women, University of Maine researchers, and our coastal communities.”

“Long story short, we got it back to its original state,” he said.

But it remains to be seen whether any of this will be enough to help Collins resist the tide. Senators have historically remained on the ballot due to changing political trends in their states, but their luck often eventually runs out; As evidenced by the 2024 impeachment of former Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.

Brewer said there’s no doubt Maine is turning blue, but it’s still a purple enough state that Collins could pull off a victory.

“The Rockefeller-type Republican, a classic New England style, can still win here, and Collins shows that from cycle to cycle,” he said. “This won’t last forever. But I don’t know if the clock has struck midnight in 2026.”