Mapped: the elections that could deliver ‘unprecedented’ losses for Labour | Local elections 2026

Data analyzed by the Guardian shows Labor is heading for its worst local election performance, a blow that will further increase pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Latest polls suggest that barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote share could fall to historic lows in council elections in England and devolved parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland on May 7, with major gains for the Reform, Greens and nationalist parties.

The collapse in support is particularly existential in the race for the Senedd, the Welsh parliament, which Labor has dominated since its founding in 1999.

Polls show Labor’s vote share in Wales has fallen by more than half; This is enough to push the party to third place; Reform and Plaid Cymru are vying for first place.

Labour’s long-term decline in Scotland is expected to continue; The Scottish National Party is likely to remain in power at Holyrood, with Reform coming in second.

In Britain, Labor faces a range of threats from the Reform, Greens, Liberal Democrats and independents in 136 council races, including London and its northern strongholds.

While reliable polling in council races is difficult to come by, Labour’s recent decline in national poll ratings and gains for other parties has experts expecting “unprecedented losses”.

Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Oxford University, predicts Labor will lose 1,900 councilors on May 7; That’s 74% of the number of seats the party currently holds and is up for re-election.

Such an outcome would be the worst local election performance for any prime minister since comparable data became available.

Fisher predicts Reform will gain 2,260 councillors, tripling the party’s local representation in England overnight, while the Greens will gain 450 and the Liberal Democrats 200.

The Conservatives will also stand to lose a net 1,010 councillors, Fisher predicts, and are bracing for a crush in a clear sign of voter dissatisfaction with Britain’s two main parties.

“Reform gains in last year’s local elections reached a record-breaking 41% of seats up for election,” Fisher said.

“Now that they have extended their lead in the polls, if they can keep the conversion rate of opinion poll scores into council seat gains at the same level, Reform will perform even better this year.

“If they can, the consequences are huge losses for the Conservatives and unprecedented losses for Labor.”

A disaster of this scale for Labor could reignite the prospect of a leadership challenge against Starmer, who remains under pressure due to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.

In recent weeks, several Labor ministers have downplayed the possibility of Starmer being sacked over a poor performance in local elections, citing the international crisis over the Iran war.

However, the Guardian’s announcement last week that Mandelson had failed to secure a review of his role in the US brought Starmer’s future back to the agenda, amid calls for resignation from opposition parties. Record-breaking election losses will only increase concerns within the Labor Party.