Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens | Environment
Millions of homes are at risk of climate-induced collapse, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
As hotter, drier summers become more frequent due to global warming, the ground beneath homes can shrink and collapse a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include a slice of land stretching from London, Essex, Kent and Oxford to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists who say mitigation measures will be required.
Anna Harrison, a scientist at BGS, said: “By combining geotechnical information on the potential for volume change with data on projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the next century, we have been able to identify areas of Great Britain that are likely to become most susceptible to shrinkage-swelling subsidence.
Most are in the London area and this is also where you will see larger changes in rainfall and temperature. It’s a double whammy.”
London also has higher building density. Harrison added: “These properties may have foundations that can withstand changes in moisture now, but you may find there will be more movement in the future. It will probably get worse.”
Subsidence can significantly reduce the value of a property and lenders often refuse to offer mortgages until the problem is resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. Engineering work may be required to stabilize land or support a property. In some cases, network pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation need to be removed.
In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring in history and the driest spring in more than 50 years. there was Home-related insurance claims of £153 million in first six months of the same year. As climate crisis predictions show that hotter, drier conditions will become increasingly common over the next century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrinkage-swelling is increasing.
The dataset predicts that around 500,000 properties could be affected by 2070 under a low emissions scenario consistent with the Paris climate agreement. This rises to more than 1.8 million properties in the medium scenario, which is closest to current global emissions trajectories.
Densely populated areas of London such as Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible, as are Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.
Harrison said: “Dry air and higher temperatures are an important factor in the occurrence of contraction-swelling precipitation. Looking ahead, these increases in warmer, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.”
