Minnesota T-Wolves at San Antonio Spurs best bet for Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference Semifinals

The second round of the 2026 NBA PLAYOFFS begins Monday with two oddly overlapping games. Thank God for YouTube TV’s controllable multi-view feature.

However, I’m here to thwart Game 1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals.

THE 76ERS VS KNICKS SECOND ROUND SERIES IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AT LEAST SIX GAMES IN THE MUST-WATCH NBA GAME

Minnesota was 2-1 in a row against San Antonio in the regular season and the Over is 2-1 overall.

But due to load management and tanking, you need to take the regular season with a grain of salt when betting on the playoffs. With that in mind, I’m overshadowing the regular season results from the Timberwolves-Spurs series opener.

Best Bet: Under 218 on Timberwolves-Spurs Game 1

Let me explain why this series might turn into a TV series. rock fight. First of all, San Antonio ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Minnesota ranked eighth. Again, the regular season isn’t the be-all and end-all, but it is eye test.

Additionally, the average pace in the three Timberwolves-Spurs games was 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes. For context, the average pace during the NBA regular season was 99.4. The average pace of the 2026 NBA Playoffs is 95.5. So, if these averages hold, we’re looking at roughly 92.1 Speed ​​for this series.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE OUTKICK SPORTS NEWS

These teams will need to hit crazy 3-point shots and/or get to the foul line frequently to cash in on the Over. The T-Wolves were the team that allowed the fewest three-pointers per game during the regular season, and the Spurs led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA ratio.

Minnesota All-Star Coach Anthony Edwards has been upgraded to “questionable” status for Game 1. I personally think it’s more likely that it’s a “smokescreen” and we just can’t see it. Ant-Man until this series heads to Minneapolis for Game 3.

Additionally, T-Wolves SG Donte DiVincenzo is out this season and breakout combo guard Ayo Dosunmu missed the close win against the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the first round and is “questionable” for Monday. DiVincenzo and Dosunmu are great shooters, and their absence hurts Minnesota’s floor space.

But the Timberwolves dropped from +14.5 underdogs to +12.5 in the opener following Edwards’ injury news, so perhaps he can play on Monday. Regardless, even if Edwards does, San Antonio is the second-toughest defense to play in your first game back from injury, next to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama faces Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Anthony Edwards at the basket. (Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

The Spurs have long, athletic wings to use against Edwards, and they have the best defensive basketball player ever, Victor Wembanyama, backing them up. also without Ant-ManThe Timberwolves will probably run their offense mostly through PF Julius Randle in Game 1, and I don’t see that going well for him.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD FOX NEWS APPLICATION

I say this as a New York Knicks fan who absolutely loves Julius. Knicks fans held their 2021-24 postseason absence against him because he was their team’s best player. In fact, you can never be a championship candidate if Randle is your best player. It’s not his fault. This is also in line with NYK’s organization.

However, he tends to play isotope too much and push players off the dribble. Since Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert can’t shoot, Wembanyama doesn’t have to leave the paint. So Randle will need to take hard, contested shots or score in the paint against Wemby. Good luck buddy.

Minnesota Timberwolves PF Julius Randle drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama at Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

Finally, Spurs are double-digit favorites, so the market is expecting an lopsided game and “the blowouts are where the Overs will go to die”.

Teams are playing with less urgency in blowouts and there is no reason to foul on more than 10 points in the final minutes. The Unders cashed in four of five games in the San Antonio-Portland Trail Blazers series, and the Spurs were double-digit favorites in three of those Unders.

Prediction: Spurs 113, Timberwolves 98

________________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clarkand check out: OutKick Betting Podcast for more betting content and random rants.