Warning ‘dire combination’ poses regional food crunch
Former national security leaders warn that clogged fertilizer supply chains combined with an El Niño event could trigger food shortages and instability in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group says there is a reasonable case for regional food shortages to emerge within the next 12 months.
“This dire combination of a strong El Niño and the fertilizer crisis will have a significant impact on food production and could lead to famine, higher prices, panic buying and perhaps social unrest and conflict in the Indo-Pacific,” said retired colonel Neil Greet, a former Australian Army officer.
The alliance fears Australia is not prepared to escalate the climate and geopolitical risks threatening its neighbors and security partners, or to increase cost-of-living pressures at home.
Australia’s climate is driven by more than just El Niño-Southern Oscillation patterns that rotate periodically in the Pacific Ocean; but the recently confirmed El Niño event has historically brought less rain and warmer temperatures to the southeast.
Cyclical warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean is also associated with weaker monsoons in India, drought in Brazil and Colombia, more rain in the southern United States, and coral loss in parts of the world, potentially putting pressure on fish stocks.
El Niño also occurs in an environment of higher global temperatures caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Former defense chiefs say the war against Iran has further complicated the situation because about a third of raw materials for global fertilizer production must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand managing director Stefan Vogel said rising fuel and fertilizer costs were putting pressure on farming margins around the world, causing many farmers, including in Australia, to reduce their plantings.
But he did not expect a sharp global decline in staple foods due to conflicts in the Middle East.
Market creativity to keep fertilizer supply chains moving, as well as price increases supporting planting programs of countries north of the equator, helped soften the blow, Mr Vogel told AAP.
El Niño has been associated with drier conditions in Southeast Asia, but agricultural analysts said it was difficult to predict its impact on crops, given that hot, dry weather can help some stages of the growing cycle.
But India, a major producer of wheat, rice and pulses, is already experiencing a delayed monsoon and lower crop yields are possible without an improvement in rainfall conditions, Mr. Vogel said.
The former security leaders’ report recommended Australia support regional food security programs and improve climate threat intelligence.
The group criticized the federal government’s failure to release a declassified version of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s assessment of climate security risks.
The UK has published a similar redacted intelligence report warning that the decline of global ecosystems could push more people into poverty and food insecurity, potentially leading to higher rates of migration, political polarization and economic insecurity.
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