NHL draft: Who will the Canucks pick? We weigh the odds on 10 players

Article content

Unless the Toronto Maple Leafs have a change of NHL heart and draft direction, they’ll select slick NCAA winger Gavin McKenna first overall Friday in Buffalo.

Article content

That will leave the Vancouver Canucks consumed by who goes next because with the third-overall selection, they covet dominant OHL defenceman Chase Reid and speedy SHL winger Ivar Stenberg.

Article content

Article content

However, what if the Leafs pass on McKenna? Do you hope to build through the back end? It’s a crucial test of tact for the hockey operations department — especially rookie general manager Ryan Johnson and director of amateur scouting Todd Harvey — to select a key piece for the roster rebuild.

The Canucks also own the No. 24 pick and are expected to select a centre with size. Here are their priorities:

1. Gavin McKenna, LW, 5-11, 170 lbs., Penn State (NCAA), GP: 35, G: 15, A: 36, PTS: 51

The skinny: A no-brainer selection? Envious skills package transferred from Medicine Hat, Alta., (WHL) to Penn State (NCAA), and with development patience, should develop into NHL difference-maker. Had 14 points (4-10) in seven 2026 world junior championship games and 129 points (41-88) in 56 WHL outings in 2024-25.

The scouting: “Hockey sense and ability to see the play before it develops and makes correct play consistently. Greatest skill is creating time and space. What’s really impressive is he came into college as a 17-year-old freshman (now 18). Average age of a junior in CHL is 18 and college it’s 21 1/2. Tremendous difference against opposition that’s bigger, faster, stronger, more mature and plays a structured game.”

Article content

The fit: The Whitehorse native would improve a Canucks’ offence that scored second fewest goals this season. Would be a boon to the business side, especially in a long rebuild amid empty seats and inflated ticket prices. McKenna first needs to add more size, muscle.

The odds: It’s minuscule, maybe 10 per cent. The Leafs invested an incredible amount of time to get to know McKenna as a player and person. And he wants to be a Leaf.

2. Chase Reid, RSD, 6-2, 187 lbs., Sault Ste. Marie (OHL), GP: 45, G: 18, A: 30, PTS: 48

The skinny: There’s an argument for Reid as “best-player-available” in topping a rich crop of defencemen, including Carson Carels, Albert Smits, Keaton Verhoeff and Daxon Rudolph, who should all go in the top 10. His ability to smoothly transition the puck projects to first pairing and first power-play unit QB.

The scouting: “They (Canucks) should take a defenceman — they’re missing a piece. Reid is such a good skater and smart, has size and is a right-hand shot. He can run your power play. The only defenceman I have with a high probability of being a No. 1. He can do everything. It’s like watching Drew Doughty with what he brings strategically.”

Article content

Article content

The fit: The Canucks could trade veteran Filip Hronek to gather more rebuild assets, and losing captain Quinn Hughes in a blockbuster trade has left a gaping hole. Reid could project as a top-pairing fit with Zeev Buium, who’s coming off a strong rookie season.

The odds: It’s 50 per cent. Depends on what the Sharks do at No. 2 pick or drop down, and if McKenna is gone.

3. Ivar Stenberg, LW, 6-foot, 183 lbs., Frolunda HC (SHL), GP: 43, G: 11, A: 22, Pts: 33

The skinny: Touted as a plug-and-play difference-maker who can step right into the NHL. Teams are enamoured by a dangerous two-way game and not cheating defensively to pile up points. He has the type of pace, push and production that raises eyebrows.

Stenberg’s 33 points (11-22) in the Swedish Hockey League this season were fifth most by an 18-year-old, and most since Daniel Sedin (42 points) and Henrik Sedin (34 points) in 1998-99. Stenberg added 10 points (4-6) in seven games at the 2026 world junior championship, where Sweden captured gold, and eight points (4-4) in the world men’s tourney.

The scouting: “McKenna is a dynamic offensive talent with game-breaking skill but lacks what Stenberg has in the defensive zone. McKenna may score more but Stenberg also has elite, top-line skill.”

Article content

The fit: “Would be a seamless addition because of how hard he plays at both ends and isn’t a traditional one-dimensional first-liner.”

The odds: It might only be 25 per cent because will he be there at No. 3?

4. Caleb Malhotra, C, 6-2, 182 lbs., Brantford (OHL), GP: 67, G: 29, A: 55, PTS: 84

The skinny: Responsible and complete player. Arguably the best-available centre. Gets to where he needs to get to quickly and uses his stick and smarts to add to a heightened battle level. Strong on backcheck to augment offensive abilities. Development patience is key.

The scouting: “Reminds me a lot of Trevor Linden with the way he played in the middle of the ice, so he’s a guy who could give you 70 points a year because he will sacrifice points for the betterment of the team. And that’s a massive compliment.”

The fit: The Canucks have too many riddles in the middle, but will eventually solve one in prize prospect Braeden Cootes. The dynamic would be different for Malhotra with his dad running the bench. He said it wouldn’t be a problem.

The odds: It’s another 50 per cent because elite blueliners will be on the board.

Article content

5. Carson Carels, LSD, 6-2, 198 lbs., Prince George (WHL), GP: 58, G: 20, A: 53, PTS: 73

The skinny: Fourth in WHL blueliner scoring and second on power play with 32 points (5-27), which attracted a lot of attention. Strength comes from working on family farm and helped to transition pucks. Playing at North Dakota (NCAA) next season.

The scouting: “Very mobile, excellent work ethic, and very good hockey sense and compete. He’s a top-pairing guy and you can put him in any situation. Charlie McAvoy (comparable) is fair.”

The fit: You can never have enough defencemen, especially those with added flair.

The odds: It’s 60 per cent if Reid is gone along with Keaton Verhoeff.

6. Keaton Verhoeff, RSD, 6-4, 212 lbs., North Dakota (NCAA), GP: 36, G: 6, A: 14, PTS: 20

The skinny: Didn’t look out of place as a 17-year-old rookie. Acclimated quickly at North Dakota with strong down-low defending and projects as a blueliner who’s big and strong and hard to play against.

The scouting: “He’s going to play at 225 pounds, no problem. Think about Aaron Ekblad, who’s a right shot. How would the Canucks look with a guy like that who has put up 57 points in 61 NHL games?”

Article content

The fit: The Canucks gave up the most goals this season. The back end is a work in progress and blueliners who can play physical and box out are a priority.

The odds: Put it at 50 per cent if they pass on Malhotra, and Reid and Carels are gone.

7. Daxon Rudolph, LSD, 6-3, 206 lbs., Prince Albert Raiders (WHL), GP: 68, G: 28, A: 50, PTS: 78

The skinny: Was third among blueliners in regular-season scoring and elevated his game when it mattered most in the playoffs. His 27 points (8-19), including three game-winners in 19 games, set the post-season standard. Led Raiders to WHL final.

The scouting: “Hard to play against and makes life uncomfortable. Every inch you get in the offensive zone is not going to be fun. He skates well and can be on second PP and the PK.”

The fit: The rebuild is going to be long and arduous. Somebody has to score from the back.

The odds: Let’s say 25 per cent. One of Carels or Verhoeff should be there if Reid is gone.

8. Maddox Dagenais, C, 6-4, 196 lbs., Quebec Remparts (QMJHL), GP: 62, G: 30, A: 32, PTS: 62

The skinny: The Canucks will target centres at No. 24, regardless if they pick Malhotra, and Dagenais moves the meter because he’s big, physical and productive. His 25 power-play points (10-15) caught the eye of scouts, who project the Montreal native, and son of retired NHL forward Pierre Dagenais, to be a strong second-line pivot.

Article content

The scouting: “If you’re going to win down the middle, you have to win with size. Think of a Fraser Minten kind of a player.” Minten, 21, a second-round pick in 2022, is a 6-foot-2, 204 pound centre who improved to 35 points (17-18) this season as a third-liner with the Boston Bruins.

The fit: The Canucks would love a future middle of Cootes, Malhotra, Dagenais.

The odds: Could be high as 75 per cent. Dagenais projected to go around No. 24.

9. Ilya Morozov, C, 6-3, 204 lbs., Miami of Ohio (NCAA), GP: 36, G: 8, A: 12, PTS: 20

The skinny: Driven to succeed. At age 17, looked like NCAA veteran this season. Moved from Moscow at age 14 and played for Windy City Storm (U15 AAA) and Tri-City Storm in the USHL (2024-25) before making NCAA leap. “He’s just taking monumental steps,” Miami coach Anthony Noreen told NHL. com. “It’s the way that he works at it, the way he approaches it.”

The scouting: “Similar to Dagenais, but his offensive upside is bigger and needs to get faster. But he is a strong two-way centre.”

The fit: Size matters. You can’t progress in rebuild with small pivots being run over.

Article content

The odds: Maybe 50 per cent. The buzz is growing. He might go in the top 20.

10. Casey Mutryn, RW/C, 6-3, 206 lbs., U.S.A Hockey National Team Development Program (USHL), GP: 25, G: 7, A: 9, PTS: 16

The skinny: The Canucks lack a potential power forward and Mutryn does the dirty work. Add defensive awareness and it’s why teammates unanimously voted him captain. His game is suited for the trenches, especially in the playoffs.

The scouting: “He plays a type of game that will translate well to pro because his compete level is very consistent.” Mutryn was fifth in the USAHNTDP portion of this season with 46 points (18-28) and first with 10 power-play goals in 62 games. Added five points (2-3) in five world Under-18 games where he served as U.S. captain.

The fit: Projected as third-liner with second-line potential because of improving game.

The odds: Probably 70 per cent. Rankings vary. Might be there for Canucks at No. 33 in Round 2.

bkuzma@postmedia.com

Article content