‘Not for the people’: Myanmar junta prepares for elections designed to legitimise grip on power | Myanmar

M.Yanmar is set to head to the polls for the first time since its military seized power in a coup in 2021, but with its former leader behind bars, its most successful political party dissolved and roughly a third of the country either in conflict or in rebel hands, few believe military rulers’ claims that the Dec. 28 elections will be “free and fair.”

“This is not for the people, it is for themselves,” says 25-year-old Pai, who fled Myanmar after the military seized power. “Them [the ruling junta] They are looking for a way to escape from the trap they are in. [in].”

When the polls open on Sunday, almost five years after the military took control of the country, the generals will be hoping the vote will legitimize their grip on power and allow them to repair their image as international pariahs.

The military rejected criticism of the vote, saying the election was not conducted through pressure and had popular support.

“The elections are being held for the people of Myanmar, not for the international community,” said junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun. “It doesn’t matter whether the international community is satisfied or not.”

Many Western governments and the United Nations rejected the vote as fraudulent. However, China, the junta’s most important ally, which helped the military return from the brink on the battlefield, supports the elections held in three stages. Commentators say China sees the elections as the best path to the country’s stability.

Analysis shows that the conflict has become more intense in the past year. According to the report, from January 1 to November 28, 2025, military air and drone attacks increased by approximately 30 percent compared to 2024. AcledTracking conflicts around the world. Civilian infrastructure such as schools and healthcare facilities were hit in almost daily strikes. This month, dozens of people were killed in a military attack on a hospital in Rakhine state, mostly controlled by the army’s opposition Arakan Army.

Kidnappings due to conscription are up 26% from 2024 as the military kidnaps people from the streets and their homes and forces them to serve in a desperate attempt to bolster its dwindling ranks.

Young people with the means to do so fled military-controlled areas, such as the former capital Yangon, for fear they might be forced to serve.

‘Fake elections’

Paranoia among Myanmar’s ruling military is so intense that a new election protection law has been passed under which any criticism of the election could lead to a minimum of three years in prison or even the death penalty. More than 200 people have been arrested since July simply for liking social media posts critical of the vote. Residents in cities such as Yangon reported that officials were going door to door instructing people to vote. Activists say people may have little choice but to comply.

Khin Ohmar, a pro-democracy activist living in exile, claims that repressive laws are being used to arrest those who criticize the vote or the army’s rule, and says, “Everyone knows very well how ruthless this army is and will continue to be ruthless. Anyone who does not approve of the junta’s fake elections is at very high risk.”

There will be 57 parties in Sunday’s vote, but the majority are thought to be affiliated with or dependent on the military. Analysts say they only create the illusion of preference but do not represent real opposition to military rule. Only six parties are competing nationwide; among them is the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which has the largest number of candidates and is running effectively unopposed in dozens of constituencies.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, which won a landslide victory in the 2020 elections, was dissolved after it refused to comply with its request to register with the junta-backed Union Election Commission. Dozens of ethnic parties were also closed. According to election monitoring group Anfrel, 57 percent of the parties competing in the 2020 general election no longer exist, despite receiving more than 70 percent of the vote and 90 percent of the seats.

Large swathes of land will be excluded from the elections, showing how much territory the junta has lost since the coup even as it has regained momentum on the battlefield.

The army announced that there would be no voting in 56 of 330 districts. Voting has also been canceled in 3,000 neighborhoods and village areas, while analysts estimate that about a third of the country will be excluded from voting.

Many regions are in the midst of intense conflict or under the control of opposition groups. The country has been locked in violent conflict since a 2021 coup in which the military imprisoned then-de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and opened fire on protesters calling for the return of democracy.

While communities took up arms and formed people’s defense forces to fight military atrocities, older, ethnic armed groups that had long fought for independence also launched attacks, leaving the military in a desperate situation. Despite incessant airstrikes and violence that UN experts describe as possible war crimes, the junta has lost large swathes of territory along its borders. Some even began to predict that the army might be overthrown.

Support from Beijing allowed the generals to fight back. Fearing further instability if the junta collapses, China has cut off cross-border supplies to some of the military’s toughest enemies in northern Shan state. Two of these powerful ethnic armed groups, TNLA and MNDAA, returned territory.

The army, freed to fight elsewhere, also adapted its tactics; It has mandated conscription, made better use of drones, and rearranged the chain of command so it can carry out air strikes more quickly.

As the election approached, it tried to consolidate its power in the regions where it planned to vote by intensifying its bombardments. Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior Myanmar adviser, said the situation was unlikely to improve after the vote.

He said the military may want to reach an agreement with some groups on a ceasefire after the election, but such agreements would be tactical in nature, giving the military time in certain areas to target its forces elsewhere.

““They are determined to take advantage and continue to take back much of the territory they have lost since the coup,” Horsey said. “This is not about a new civilian government switching to a softer approach.”