Donald Trump fails to fix deadly problem with ceasefire
London: A new warning from the Iranian military has highlighted the weakness of Donald Trump’s peace deal with Tehran, despite his goal of ending the war on all fronts.
Iranian authorities have issued a warning to ships in the Strait of Hormuz informing them that the main shipping lane has been closed again and their safety will be at risk if they try to pass.
“Due to crimes in Lebanon and violations of US commitments to the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz has again been closed to all ships,” they said in a radio alert reported on Saturday (Middle Eastern time).
The threat was quickly dismissed by US Central Command, which insisted the strait was open.
“Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact as 55 commercial ships transited today, transporting large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets,” the US military said.
Maritime experts at Lloyd’s List soon released data showing that ships were still entering and exiting the Persian Gulf.
“Despite Iran’s claims that it has closed the strait, for the first time in weeks traffic was seen moving via the northern route and also the southern route with AIS,” the statement said. AIS refers to the transponders, or automatic identification systems, that ships use to reveal their location.
The result: Confusion over the transportation routes through which 20 percent of the world’s oil is used.
The US president had a response to this on social media. Trump announced that no toll will be collected from ships in the Bosphorus unless the US decides to impose a toll on traffic. This idea, sure to surprise shipping companies and their customers, seemed to be his way of gaining the upper hand.
But messages on social media cannot force Iranian conservatives to back down. And the US president, no matter how powerful he is, cannot force ships to pass through the gulf if owners and insurers decide the risks are too great.
Chatham House security analyst Nitya Labh highlighted this problem A few days after Trump’s peace deal. Uncertainty about the waterway means insurers cannot reduce their premiums, he said. The shipping trade will need more evidence of the commitment of both the U.S. and Iranian sides to the agreement.
“Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Iran will still retain the ability to close it,” he wrote. “The threat of a shutdown alone could be enough to deter shipments and create significant disruption without significant cost to Tehran.”
What happened on Saturday proved this. Tehran created confusion without harming the regime.
The most important factor was the justification for trying to close the throat. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blamed this decision on Israel’s recent airstrikes on Lebanon, as well as unspecified failures by the United States. It connected the oil trade to Lebanon.
The Revolutionary Guard is not a benign actor or a source of moral authority on peace terms. It is listed as a terrorist organization by Australia and others and continues to detain and kill Iranian dissidents seeking democracy.
But the connection between Lebanon and broader peace terms remains a key feature of Trump’s deal. So far this is also the main source of failure.
Despite the so-called ceasefire, the war in Lebanon continued on Saturday. Lebanese news agency NNA reported that 16 people were killed and 12 people were injured in Israeli attacks on Nabatiyeh in the south of the country. Also in Sidon in the south, seven people were reported dead and 13 people, including children, were injured. In Sohmor in the Bekaa region, 4 people died and 1 person was injured.
This came barely a day after what amounted to a renewal of the ceasefire hit global news.
Israel accused Hezbollah of launching more than 50 explosives and projectiles at Israeli forces. An Israel Defense Forces soldier was killed and 13 others were injured in a pre-dawn Hezbollah attack on an IDF position near Nabatiyeh on Saturday.
Talks to be held in Switzerland on Sunday local time could bring progress. US Vice President JD Vance will attend meetings with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are also part of the talks.
The problem is that Trump has not yet found a way to stop Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel or Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
“We expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel,” Trump said Thursday.
He expressed anger at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but did not force the Israeli leader to stop military strikes that were killing Lebanese civilians, including children.
History shows Trump can achieve this if he tries. In August 1982, Israeli forces bombed West Beirut. US president in a few hours Ronald Reagan telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin called for the attacks to stop. The White House told the press that the president had “expressed his outrage” at the death and destruction. Begin ordered a full ceasefire.
Reagan wouldn’t have said that He threatened to stop arms sales Although there were other times when he postponed sales, he made an offer to Israel because of this dispute. The details remain unclear, but Reagan achieved a conclusion that Trump could not.
Will Netanyahu listen to Trump if the president tries to stop attacks on Lebanon? After Hamas massacred Israeli civilians in October 2023, Israel ran out of patience for Hezbollah attacks. In fact, for every rocket there is a demand for revenge.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated this on Friday. “For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must cry,” he wrote to X. “All Lebanon must burn!”
“You need to go crazy. To destroy. To crush terrorism.”
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir
Minister Ben-Gvir, who mocked detainees in a protest flotilla in May, was reprimanded for his duties. But in Israel, he speaks for those who want Hezbollah to be destroyed at all costs, even if it means making southern Lebanon look like Gaza.
“Enough ping-pong,” Ben-Gvir wrote. “You can’t win in the Middle East with measured responses and restrictions; you have to go crazy. To destroy. To crush terrorism.”
With Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard on one side and Ben-Gvir on the other, there may be no chance of peace in Lebanon. As long as Tehran wants to protect Hezbollah’s proxies, this will continue to be a threat to overall peace.
Trump claimed to have made a peace agreement. However, it did not sever the connection between air strikes in Lebanon and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. While the war continues on one side, uncertainty continues on the other.
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David Crowe is the European correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect with: X or email.
