Nvidia’s stock struggles as Kalshi traders bet chip prices are coming down

Nvidia’s shares have been floundering lately, and Kalshi traders predict that the price the company can charge for chips has also fallen.

While the artificial intelligence chip maker is up about 12% in 2026, shares are down about 3% in the past month. In comparison, VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) It’s up 84% this year, and the fund was up 15% last month.

While Wall Street focused on memory chips and infrastructure for the next steps in AI development, Nvidia remained on the sidelines. This has led to gains for companies such as: Micron Technology And sandiskboth are up nearly 60% in the past month alone.

As Nvidia’s shares weakened, the compute price of the company’s B200 chip also fell. Nvidia’s B200 is the company’s flagship graphics processing unit, or GPU, that helps run data centers at scale.

B200’s hourly trading price rose to $6.11 on May 30, a three-month high. Ornnprovides live GPU compute prices across major hardware types. Since then, the dashboard shows that the hourly trading price of B200 has decreased and was at $4.22 as of June 21.

Kalshi traders are now pessimistic that the trading price of Nvidia’s AI chip will surpass its May high.

Many companies rent access to GPUs through cloud providers or neoclouds, another growing ecosystem. However, as the demand for AI infrastructure increases, the cost of renting a GPU may fluctuate.

“A lot of people don’t know how much computing power they’ll need next year, and many suppliers of that computing power don’t know right now how many GPUs and at what capacity they should order,” Seoyoung Kim, a finance professor at Santa Clara University, previously told CNBC. “And manufacturers like Nvidia don’t know how much they need to produce.”

Earlier this month, Google agreed It will pay SpaceX $920 million per month to lease AI computing capacity from October 2026 to June 2029. In doing so, Google will use approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, memory and other related components. Following the deal, RBC Capital Markets expressed a positive view on Nvidia’s performance for the second half of 2026 and 2027, saying the chip giant “appears to be best positioned among its peers.”

“Regardless of the exact rationale, these GPU leasing agreements should alleviate any ongoing concerns about NVDA losing stock.” [application-specific integrated circuits]at least in the short term,” analysts wrote.

— CNBC’s Yun Li contributed to this story.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.