Obesity pills from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk near US launch

Hand Lilly And Novo Nordisk They are preparing to take their competition to the next limit of weight loss drugs: pills.

Both companies are waiting to start oral obesity drugs in the US next year after regulators approved. Daily pills can introduce more people to GLP-1s, the best known medical class for weekly shots.

However, Lilly’s pill revealed new questions about how wide oral drugs will be adopted and which opponent company will dominate, after producing less weight loss than analysts in the near future.

In a special interview with Lilly’s chief scientific officer, Skovronsky, in a special interview with CNBC, they will look more closely about how Lilly and Novo pills are compared in the coming months when Lilly published the results of their experiment. The main purpose of the study is to measure how much pills can reduce blood sugar levels in people with type 2 diabetes, but will also measure weight loss.

Skovronsky said, “Unless I trust Orforglpron very much that he would meet well compared to the oral semagludide, we could not undertake three randomized control attempts.” He said.

He warned against making comparisons between the attempts that do not directly compare the drugs that Novo’s pill looked more effective and leads to less cut. Meanwhile, Novo’s chief scientific officer Martin Holst Lange said in a separate interview that the data spoke for them.

Novo’s upcoming obesity pill is an oral version of Wegovy; Lilly’s pill is a new medicine called Orborglpron, which is different from his shot. Lilly’s shot Skovronsky is the gold standard in terms of efficiency. It can help people lose more than 20% of their body weight.

Neither Novo’s pill nor Lilly’s oral medicine are not as effective as Zepbound. The highest dose, while the orral Semagludide has caused approximately 12% loss of about 12% weight loss. If this means less weight loss, it raises the question of how many people will prefer.

Nevertheless, Wall Street is waiting for the pills to make big ways in the coming years. In 2030, analysts see oral drugs representing about 20% of the 80 billion dollar market for GLP-1 obesity drugs in 2030.

Skovronsky thinks that at the end of the pills, obesity may be the primary way to treat worldwide, and oral drugs may have a larger market share than injected. He thinks most patients are more concerned about other factors such as supply and comfort, and he is more concerned about how much weight they can lose, and he has an edge of Oborglpron.

Treatment, as people know, is a small molecular drug, as most pills are. It can be produced more easily than peptides such as shooting and Novo’s pill. And with Novo’s oral option, it does not come with food and water restrictions that come with, which requires people to wait 30 minutes to eat and drink the drug.

BMO Capital Markets Analyst Evan Seigerman said, “When I look at the pills, Orphorglpron has no food effect, this is a small molecule, so production should be easier,” he said. “But I think with the new management on Novo Nordisk [new Chief Executive Officer] Mike Dousdar will not take it and will not complain about it. He will bend and this launch will succeed. “

After seeing the consequences of Lilly’s essay of obesity pills, Seigerman carried some of his market share forecasts from Oral Semagludide from Orforglpron. Analysts reduced their estimates of 2032 for Oscomalpron about $ 4.5 billion between May and September. Now they see sales of $ 14.56 billion that year.

Skovronsky said it was more difficult to predict market dynamics than science.

“We did a good job to predict science,” he said. “We said that we would make a verbal with injected GLP-1s, similar to GLP-1s.