One Nation set to capitalise on Barnaby Joyce defection
Barnaby Joyce’s defection to One Nation will give the minor party an “easy” Senate victory, but the affair could end in tears.
The former deputy prime minister and New England MP has formalized his move from the Nationals to the Pauline Hanson-led party after weeks of speculation.
He will sit in the House of Representatives for the remainder of the parliamentary term as a One Nation MP, before leading the far-right party’s bid in the NSW Senate.
Australian National University politics expert Jill Sheppard says although polls for One Nation are at an all-time high, that figure may be inflated as swings in smaller parties fade as the election approaches.
But there are two factors that give Mr. Joyce a strong chance of securing the Senate seat.
“One Nation won the lone Senate seat in NSW in May this year, so the support is clearly there,” Dr Sheppard said.
“Many voters won’t know most of the names on the Senate ballot, but they will know (Mr. Joyce’s), and that’s a big advantage.”
Dr Sheppard said Mr Joyce would not hesitate to use his public profile to his advantage.
“Wherever Barnaby goes there will be some voters who will follow him. The Coalition will now be desperately voting to find out how many there are,” he said.
Latest polls show a high number of people planning to put One Nation first on the ballot; Polls show support for the party is between 14 and 18 percent.
The Resolve poll found 29 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to support the party if it was led by Mr Joyce.
There is speculation that Mr Joyce will eventually succeed the 71-year-old One Nation leader, but none have confirmed a succession plan is in place.
Dr Sheppard said Senator Hanson’s dominance of his party could destabilize the relationship and he doubted “the marriage will last”.
“One Nation is Pauline Hanson’s baby,” he said.
“He removed his name from the official party register, which seems to indicate that he is looking for a transition plan, but it is also very difficult to let go of the reins.
“I think either Barnaby becomes leader too quickly and Hanson has to withdraw from public life altogether, or maybe they’ll find a way to work together.”
Mr Joyce said he understood his decision would hurt some, but described Senator Hanson as a “fellow traveler” with similar views on net-zero emissions and immigration.
“I think One Nation is very original in sending a strong message,” he told Sky News.
“They support retirees, not the Paris Agreement.”
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