One Nation wins long-time Liberal seat
Updated ,first published
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is poised to win the federal seat of Farrer after 25 years in a historic loss for the Liberals, as the party’s candidate David Farley moves ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe in stands across regional NSW electorates.
One Nation’s loss stripped the Coalition of its seat for the first time in its 77-year history, causing great upset to leader Angus Taylor.
Farley received more than half the primary vote in a handful of regional booths across the electorate as ballots were counted Saturday night. Milthorpe came in second place with a stronger performance in the centers of Albury and Griffith, but this was not enough to overtake One Nation in the wider electorate.
Liberals handing out how-to-vote cards at the polls on Saturday were pessimistic about their chances of retaining the former seat of abandoned leader Sussan Ley. As the votes poured in during the evening, the Liberals and Nationals were polling below Farley and Milthorpe.
The Liberals have held the seat since Ley seized it from the National Party in 2001, but they face a backlash that spreads to regional centers and small towns. It was littered with rival orange campaign signs, many of which were erected this week for One Nation and Milthorpe.
At One Nation’s event in Albury on Saturday night, Hanson said voters had turned to his party because “they realized we were the last hope to change things in this country and bring it back to the way it was”.
“Do not underestimate us. Remember, it is One Nation that steps back. Those who first opposed the Voice [to parliament]the first ones [to] Go back to net zero. “We have been out there kicking and screaming against many problems, but we will do more,” he said.
Hanson is enjoying a period of record polls as the by-election shapes up as a test of the Coalition’s electoral relevance and the staying power of One Nation. For many voters, the chaos that followed Hanson’s party throughout the campaign seemed less offensive than what they described as tired and careless Coalition and Labor machines.
People this imprint spoke to outside Farrer polling booths on Saturday cited water issues, renewable energy, high government spending, poor health care, homelessness, high cost of living and feeling neglected as reasons for wanting change.
“We’ve had enough, it’s time to bring in new blood,” one woman said. “Pauline has ideas that I think the rest of us think, but she’s a little afraid to say them.”
Farley, whose campaign has been rife with controversy, said voters should choose the minor right-wing party if they wanted change and denied he would be at risk of defection if elected under Hanson’s banner.
The 69-year-old agricultural businessman has faced scrutiny over his political past, including his attempts to run for Labor ahead of the 2022 election and his support for Milthorpe’s campaign in 2025. But those controversies didn’t sit well with his supporters, many of whom dismissed the attacks against him as establishment noise.
Milthorpe, a 47-year-old educator, won every election in Albury last year but faces a dramatically changed political landscape in this by-election. The independent, who has sought to distance himself from the “turquoise independent” movement while receiving funding from Climate 200, acknowledged that the contest had attracted far more attention than his attempt to unseat Ley a year ago.
“Every vote counts, so you have to stay positive and I have a lot of people behind me,” he said after voting Saturday.
Liberal leader Taylor ruled out the possibility that she might not win the seat when she held a press conference alongside Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski on Saturday morning.
“I’ve said from the beginning that this is a big mountain to climb with a long-time local member who, of course, is leaving. But Raissa is definitely the perfect candidate. I’ll be there for her throughout the day and fight hard,” Taylor said.
But the Liberal primary vote was just 10 per cent at 8pm on Saturday.
In the 2022 election, Ley received 43.4 per cent of the primary vote for the Liberals, while Milthorpe came second with almost 20 per cent of the vote. In that poll, One Nation recorded just 6.6 percent of the primary vote. After the preferences were counted, Milthorpe won 43.8 percent of the preferred vote over the two candidates, reducing Ley’s margin to 6.2 percent.
But this month’s by-election turned out to be a very different contest. The Liberals lost their incumbent and when the seat became vacant, the Nationals entered the race for the first time in 25 years. While One Nation’s votes began to increase in opinion polls after the last election, the Coalition’s votes fell to record lows.
Both the Liberals and the National Party favored One Nation ahead of Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards, which helped swing the vote in favor of Hanson.
Liberal deputy leader Jane Hume dodged questions about the decision on Saturday night. “This is actually a decision for the party organization, not for the candidates or the politicians themselves,” he said.
National leader Matt Canavan has been much more cautious about his party’s chances as he navigates voters for much of the past month.
“We haven’t run for this seat in 25 years. We haven’t been on the ballot. So it was a big ask, a big task to reintroduce ourselves to the people of Farrer,” he said.
“We’re not going away. I see it more as a two-legged football final, right? It’s kind of an away game for us. [this] byelection The government will not change today.”
National deputy leader Bridget McKenzie said she would work with One Nation to form a government if necessary.
“I’m willing to work with anyone who wants to see Anthony Albanese leave The Lodge,” he said.
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Natassia Chrysanthos is a Federal Political Correspondent. He has previously reported on immigration, health, social issues and the NDIS from Parliament House in Canberra.Connect with: X or email.
Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
Nick Newling is the federal politics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect with: X or email.
