Opportunities, perils and pitfalls: how UK parties have responded to war in Iran | US-Israel war on Iran
Facing one of the toughest moments of his premiership, Keir Starmer can at least take solace in the fact that polls show the British public broadly support his stance on the conflict in Iran.
Almost half (46%) believe the UK’s military posture should be purely defensive, tasked with shooting down drones and defending civilian areas and British military installations such as the RAF base in Cyprus.
The findings, based on a YouGov survey of 6,285 adults in Britain this week, come as the UK government faces criticism from Cyprus for not doing enough to protect the island. There are also claims by Donald Trump that the UK has failed to support the US; The US president said on social media: “We don’t need people joining Wars after we’ve already won them.” Meanwhile, former prime minister Tony Blair said Keir Starmer “should have supported America from the very beginning.”
Despite these criticisms, Starmer’s right-wing opponents appear to be walking more of a political tightrope. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London and historian of the Conservatives, said: “The Conservatives and the Reformers have more of a problem with how their leaders will react in both cases and what their voters want to hear.”
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1. conservatives
Unlike her predecessors, who led the Conservatives into opposition during wartime, Kemi Badenoch has gone on the offensive against the government’s stance and is expected to try to portray Labor as “patriotic”.
During questions on Wednesday, the Prime Minister accused Starmer of failing to take “acts of aggression” following attacks on UK bases. But this view appears to be in line with just 15% of Tory voters who think Britain should be actively involved in attacking Iran, according to YouGov.
37 per cent believe the UK’s military posture should be “purely defensive”, while another 37 per cent want it to be “purely retaliatory”. The Conservative Party’s tradition of warnings about war was raised by senior MP Edward Leigh in an intervention that contradicted Badenoch’s criticism of Starmer during prime minister’s questions and clearly did not go unnoticed by him.
Bale said Badenoch was “clearly out of touch with some Conservative voters”. He added: “He sees himself as more of a leader than a follower, but there may be a limit to that.”
Bale said Badenoch’s stance was unusual compared to past opposition leaders who either calibrated or avoided criticism of the government’s positions in wartime, adding: “You probably have to go back to Suez, where the opposition was, then Labor and finally take a contradictory line. Michael Howard was supporting Iraq, although he later regretted it.”
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2. UK Reformation
Nigel Farage leads the party whose voters are most evenly divided when it comes to views on the war. Almost a quarter of reform voters (24%) think Britain should be actively involved in the attack on Iran.
Farage, who supported regime change in Iran with all his might, insisted that he did not follow public opinion. But he now risks alienating what YouGov describes as the 28% and 35% of Reform voters who want the UK’s response to be defensive or retaliatory, reflecting cautious and isolationist currents among his supporters.
Reform board member Gawain Towler said he did not recognize the YouGov poll because of his relationship with the Reform base, adding: “They almost universally support Farage’s position, they think it is different to Iraq and Libya.”
For Farage, his ongoing relationship with Donald Trump is not without its risks when it comes to winning the support of more undecided or “Reform-minded” voters. The US president was highly unpopular with the British public even before the war began.
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3. workforce
According to this week’s poll, Starmer is broadly in line not only with where the country is, but also where his party’s voter base is. “The shadow of Iraq has played a huge role in terms of the views of Labor voters and is broadly where they are,” Bale said.
“It also reflects the ambivalence of most people, even though it’s where the country is, but that won’t save it from its difficulties.”
Some 59% of Labor voters wanted Britain’s stance to be defensive, according to YouGov polls. While 32 percent of voters thought Starmer handled his relationship with Trump well, this rate rose to 53 percent among Labor voters.
This is a view Sadiq Khan repeated on Saturday. The mayor of London told X: “Keir Starmer is right to resist US President Donald Trump’s pressure to join attacks on Iran.” “This is an election war that will not only cause unnecessary death and suffering abroad, but could also lead to major economic shocks at home.”
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4. Liberal Democrats and Greens
Both sides have benefited from opposition to British involvement in wars in the past; Charles Kennedy’s leadership during the Iraq war was a notable Liberal Democrat moment.
YouGov polling this week found that 59% of Green party voters and 61% of Liberal Democrats support a purely defensive UK stance. But these are 2024 general election voters, while the Greens have since moved left, garnering support that might otherwise be swayed towards Jeremy Corbyn’s troubled Your Party; This process may be accelerated by conflict.
“Our voter base has probably tripled since 2024, with the majority coming from the Labor left, so anti-war sentiment will probably be much higher than that now,” a Green insider said.
In terms of political ramifications, one future scenario could involve Labor linking feelings of distrust in the general public with a strategy to target Green leader Zack Polanski’s stated desire to leave an “unreformed” NATO alliance.
