The Farrer Form Guide: Dreamers versus RWNJs
2026 Farrer by-election It won’t change the course of Australian politics, but it could give it a solid boost.
Despite 12 contestants, Farrer looks like a two-horse race between Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) candidate David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe.
The betting agents are snapping up Farley, with Milthorpe falling badly behind in second place and ten others leaving the Riverina in the dust.
Labour’s disastrous loss in 2019 put political gambling into its proper perspective, not as a way to pick a winner, but as a cup game as a projection of hope.
There is no doubt that eight of the candidates have zero chance of unnecessarily disturbing the scorer. They can be classified as dreamers, RWNJs, or past dwellers.
On the dreamer side we have:
independent candidate Gary PappinA Balranald-born local has the idea that Riverina LGAs should see an increase in federal funding and provide free childcare to all Riverina residents.
Lucas Ellis From the Sustainable Australia Party Admirable aims perhaps, but totally shitty impact or grumbling.
Independent Roger Woodward He is a NSW RFS long service medalist, chartered accountant and experienced bushfire fighter. Roger wants to eliminate student debt, fund more schools and provide additional funding for Indigenous housing, among other things. So you have no chance.
Greens candidate Richard Hendrie also opposed Susan Ley In 2025, when he received 4.93 per cent of the primary vote, he had a 4 per cent lead over the Greens. If this trend continues…
Pharmacist Aimee Pearson He is the candidate of Farrer’s Marijuana Legalization Party. The party, formerly the Ending Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) party, has not previously appealed to voters.
It’s hard to know how much support there is for legal cannabis in the Riverina, but it’s worth noting that Griffith, Australia’s one-time turf capital, is the second-largest city in the electorate and likely has plenty of users in the boonies. In the 2025 Elections, the party realized that: 3% of Senate votes In NSW.
On the RWNJ side, we…
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Peter Sinclair He also objected to Farrer in 2025. At the time, Sinclair, a former Hume Council staffer, had a lead vote of 3.47%, with nearly 2% against his party. He fared much better than the Trumpet candidate, who had a risky upside of 2.37%, but against PHON in 2026? Sinclair’s chickens have no hope of hatching.
Rebecca Scriven It is a Family First candidate with all its requirements. He, along with FF boss Lyle Shelton, believes that ‘parliaments work best when their members are grounded in the Judeo-Christian values that shape Australia’.
PHON candidate David Farley takes blow to Rebecca republished OnlyFans shared several suggestive posts on Facebook and announced that Family First would not be casting Farley due to this moral lapse. Scriven only got 2.15% of the primary vote when he ran on Farrer in 2025, so PHON isn’t exactly shaking.
Former Senator Gerard RennickPeople First chose the architect Jamie Bonnefin As Farrer’s candidate. Gerrard’s vanity project garnered less than 1% of the national vote in the 2025 Federal Election. It seems unlikely that Farrer will have his ego stroked in 2026.
The Liberal and National parties make up the laggards.
There had been pressure on Farrer since 1949, including from a deputy Prime Minister. Tim Fisher and leader of the Liberal Party in Sussan Ley. Ley was first elected in 2001 and retained the seat with more than 43% first preference in the 2025 Election, despite an 8% drop against her.
Historically it has been the bluest of the blue ribbon seats, but later Angus Taylor Sussan tumbled, Sussan resigned from parliament and everything changed.
With the seat vacant, the old agreement under which the Libs and Nats agreed not to contest any seat held by the other was no longer valid.
So they’re both doing something.
Raissa Butkowski He is a liberal candidate.
Accordingly Speech:
‘Although he will be at the top of the ballot paper, Butkowski, a community legal service solicitor and Albury councillor, is facing a major challenge in the contest.’
brad robertson national candidate,
‘The Nationals have chosen former military commander Brad Robertson to contest the Farrer by-election.’
If nothing else, Robertson is optimistic:
“When you look at what we represent and the people of Farrer, they expect us to come back.”
Published polls on Farrer are scarce, but the next best indicator is the cup odds game, and these suggest both the Libs and Nats are hiding in vain.
At the national level, both parties have fallen into irrelevance, and this downward spiral looks set to continue on May 9 and possibly beyond.
The apparent collapse of the coalition has left the real contest in Farrer between independent Michelle Milthorpe and PHON candidate David Farley.
Milthorpe, which came second to Ley in 2025, came second in the polls, is well-funded and has the advantage of running new campaigns in the 2025 Election with its volunteers and ground game. In other words, he’ll hit the ground running.
His chief rival will be agribusinessman David Farley.
Farley is the favorite in the cup game, but like all bets it reflects perceived mood mixed with rubbery facts.
While Milthorpe ran a scandal-free campaign, Farley, a PHON, also made a few missteps. OnlyFans postthis was smoked Lyle Shelton.
Sydney Morning Herald It revealed that Farley was trying to join the Labor Party. Guard reported this Barnaby Joyce He scolded her for rejecting PHON’s basic immigration policies.
Farley too fitting to know whether Gina Rinehart was financing his campaign and tarnished Griffith is Farrer’s second largest city.
And finally, Farley actively promoted separatist thought. Ben Roberts-Smithincluding emotional posters around voters.
Farley likely did other foot-striking drills, but this one will give voters something to think about. Unless they are PHON voters, then they will be off their backs.
In the last by-election in the Victorian electorate on 2 May Nepeean languagePHON candidate Darren Hercus Liberal candidate wins with 24.66% of primary vote Anthony MarshThe rate of those participating in the survey is 38%.
Sydney Morning Herald ran with:
‘In Nepean, one in four voters chose One Nation. Both major parties should be worried.’
Of course, three out of four voters did not vote for One Nation; That’s why a Liberal wins.
Farrer is not from Nepal; The latter had a Labor MP from 2018 to 2022 and was slightly redder, but both by-elections were canceled due to the Liberal member resigning before the end of his term.
Despite PHON’s pre-survey excitement, Nepean wasn’t even close.
Farrer will have completely different streams of preferences, and their machinations are something even non-psophologists cannot understand.
Everything will become clear on Saturday night.
It may all come down to preferences, RWNJs versus dreamers.
Are we gambling here? Milthorpe, calm down.
Ross Jones is IA’s investigations editor and author of the two-year investigation: Ashbygate: The plot to destroy Australia’s Speaker was published by IA in 2015 and is available HERE .
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