USA

Putin under increasing pressure from Ukraine war

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s exposure to rare public criticism at home is an important signal of how the pressures caused by more than four years of war in Ukraine are damaging the country.

Fuel shortages and rising inflation, high-profile attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and cities, and rising military losses are causing leading figures to begin placing blame on Putin.

“This is a crisis,” said Vladimir Milov, an exiled Russian economist who served as deputy energy minister in 2002. “What we’re seeing now is an extreme acceleration in public recognition that we’re in trouble.”

German Gref, head of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, is one of the most high-profile elites in Russia who has made open criticism calling for an end to the war.

“I don’t think there is a single person who is worried about anything other than a quick end to hostilities, that’s clear,” he said on Russian state television earlier this week in response to overwhelming negative economic trends.

Russia may now be reaching a tipping point; This situation has been developing since it launched its full-scale invasion against Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine’s advances in drone technology have enabled the military to strike medium- and long-range targets within Russia and the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. This resulted in both strategic and psychological victories against Putin.

Ordinary Russian citizens are feeling the effects of this situation in their pockets. They experience strikes in major cities and are forced to cancel their typical holidays on the Black Sea coast in Crimea.

Analysts say Russian air defenses are weak and lack sufficient manpower to operate them, leaving targets open for Ukraine to strike.

“Ukraine’s medium-range and long-range strikes kind of eliminate the gap in time when Putin thought he had to make some serious decisions,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia team leader and deputy director of the Cognitive Warfare Project at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Of greatest concern is whether Putin will order a general mobilization to strengthen air defenses and supplement the growing manpower shortage. The Russian casualty rate likely increased by 8 to 1 in the first six months of 2026. According to a recently published report By the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Describing the figures as “staggering”, the organization estimates that 450,000 Russian soldiers were killed throughout the war, among 1.4 million casualties. CSIS estimates that Russia is losing more troops than it can muster, at 30,000 troops per month compared to 27,000.

Stepanenko said Putin also has the option of nationalizing industries to address gas and fuel shortages resulting from his successful attack on Ukraine’s oil facilities. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Russia Started importing gas from India To compensate for shortages in the country’s 11 time zones. Russians face rationing, long queues at gas stations and record high prices.

Stepanenko said there is no sign yet that Putin is inclined to make some of these tough decisions and is instead willing to stomach what he sees as temporary pain in exchange for moving forward on the front lines against Ukraine.

But Russian forces remain stalled, and it is unclear whether Putin is denying the true nature of the battlefield, unwilling to confront it, or providing misinformation.

A map reportedly leaked by the Russian Ministry of Defense in April showed Russian forces occupying Ukrainian towns that they had failed to capture. ISW said it had reason to believe the map was authentic and matched the claims of military progress and victory by top Russian generals.

Stepanenko said it was possible for Putin to operate on false information.

“If this is something presented by a top general, I don’t think Putin would go out of his way to verify these claims,” he said.

Milov said public criticism of Putin was a “new development”, generally moderate, but no longer a taboo.

Milov said Russia faces an “unholy trinity” that is coming to a head this year: Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) begins to contract in the first quarter of 2026, the budget deficit is swelling and inflation is rising.

“The government is effectively financing the budget deficit through money emission and money printing, which has enormous pro-inflationary effects, fueling inflation again, preventing the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates, and investment falling.”

However, Milov said it is difficult to predict any political change in Russia because Putin has destroyed and criminalized all forms of political organizations and opposition. Milov said Russian people have evolved towards adaptation and survival. He said Russia was more likely to experience a major rupture similar to other times in its history, such as the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

“At some point it collapses and there is no one left to defend it,” he said.

Putin’s pain is self-inflicted, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is looking to dig deeper into the knife to force the Russian leader to the negotiating table.

Zelensky on June 25 shared a photo on social media He announced that he had met with the head of the Ukrainian Secret Service and a “40-day influence operation” aimed at forcing Russia to end the war.

Days later, Zelensky said Ukraine’s domestically produced long-range cruise missile, Flamingo, It hit targets in the Volgograd region of Russiaor administrative district. The distance from Ukraine’s control zone to the target can be around 600 miles, making the Flamingo comparable to Western-supplied cruise missiles such as the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles and the French SCALP.

The attack appeared to mark the first time the Flamingo was successfully deployed in combat. Kyiv Post reportedThe bus-sized missile has been tested and fine-tuned for about a year.

Flamingo is part of Ukraine’s growing domestic military production base, said Luke Coffey, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute.

Ukraine’s ability to improve the Flamingo’s targeting and range, as well as its military’s advances with drones, including entirely domestic production, have helped Ukraine come to the fore against Russia after a stalemate between 2023 and 2024.

“For there to be a real impact on the front line or a real impact in Crimea, this will have to be measured over months, I would say, nothing will be automatic,” Coffey said, warning that Russia is not stagnant, just as Ukraine is racing to innovate.

It is estimated that Russia can produce up to three ballistic missiles per day. By his estimate, these are being stockpiled for major salvos against Ukraine every seven to 10 days.

A massive attack on Ukraine overnight from Wednesday to Thursday left at least 30 people dead, dozens injured and residential buildings damaged in the capital. Other Ukrainian cities were also hit by Russian missiles and drones.

Ukrainian accelerating the development of ballistic missile interceptorThere is a serious need for air defense as Europe and the United States cannot provide adequate defense against Russian attacks.

Zelensky is pleading for US licensing for joint production of Patriot missiles. President Trump did not reject Ukraine’s request, but he did not accept it either.

Coffey argued that European partners should take action and deliver interceptors to Ukraine that have been in storage across the continent. He also noted the need for additional sanctions to close loopholes through which Western components continue to infiltrate Russian weapons, but warned that even this action would take months to have an effect.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and its allies should prepare to weather the winter, stockpiling basic humanitarian supplies such as tents and generators to combat possible Russian attacks on Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure; It’s a punitive strategy that Putin implemented last winter.

“There’s no reason to assume this winter will be any easier,” Coffey said.

Head to The Hill for the latest news, weather, sports and streaming video.