USA

Putin’s reign may not survive the impending fall of Crimea

Tuesday marked Yevgeni’s third anniversary Prigozhin’s rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin failed and paid with his life. But Russia as a whole, and Russian-occupied Crimea in particular, might have been better off if the man once known as “Putin’s chief” had succeeded in overthrowing the regime in Moscow.

Prigozhin understood something Putin did not: the Kremlin cannot defeat Ukraine on a conventional military basis.

Putin still can’t seem to grasp this. On the day of Prigozhin’s uprising, Russian dead and wounded they numbered just over 223,000. Three years later, Russia’s losses in Ukraine have increased more than six timesIt approached 1.4 million.

Putin’s end in Ukraine is near. Russia cannot continue to sustain this level of military losses. On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noted: Putin is losing some 35,000 Russian soldiers every month. He also said Moscow spends 50 percent of its government budget on its military. For reference, the United States spends only 15 percent of its federal budget (and no more than 9 percent of total state and national government budgets) on defense.

Even Vladimir Solovyov, considered one of Putin’s most important propagandists, is worried. In the most popular Russia-1 prime time program, Solovyov attacked in anger At the Bank of Russia for keeping interest rates high. He claimed that it caused the construction of vital dams and barriers to protect Russia’s bridges and military infrastructure to be halted.

But Solovyov said the quiet part of the work out loud: “We are building dams. But for the last few days there has been no work – no money. How is this possible?” Putin’s economy is running on empty just like a war machine.

And in Crimea the situation is likely to worsen. Since the first months of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Ukraine has systematically launched a multi-domain military campaign to weaken and isolate Russian forces based on the strategic Black Sea peninsula.

For most of 2022, Ukraine’s initial efforts have focused on: Targets Russian naval assets and ports Used to strengthen and supply Crimea. As early as March 2022, Kiev was using ballistic missiles to attack the port of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. A month later Ukraine Neptune anti-ship missile sank the cruiser MoscowFlagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Eventually, the Kremlin was forced to evacuate its Sevastopol naval headquarters in Crimea after Ukraine was hit by Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, and what remained of its fleet was moved to Novorossiysk and other Russian naval bases in the Black Sea.

Towards the end of 2022, Ukraine began launching airstrikes deep into Russian-occupied Crimea using unmanned aerial vehicles. Ukraine, in addition to hitting Sevastopol They hit the vital Saky air baseDestroying or severely damaging Russian aircraft and destroying the airport’s ammunition depots.

Notably, in October 2022, Ukraine carried out one of its first special operations, in which an explosives-laden truck collapsed a large part of the road and railway span of the Kerch Bridge, which connects the Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland. Even then, Ukraine was focused on isolating Crimea.

Ukraine has intensified multi-domain attacks across Crimea throughout 2023. This included naval drones, cruise missiles, special operations raids and sustained air strikes against Russian logistics.

Among Ukraine’s major achievements in 2023 Rostov-on-Don submarine and the Minsk landing ship is in dry dock, and in a daring Beach commando raid on Cape Tarkhankut In Western Ukraine. Throughout the year, the Ukrainians increased the tempo of attacks against Russian naval repair facilities and command and control points.

The deployment of US-made ATACMS and other improvised deep strike weapons in 2024 has largely pinned down Russian forces on the peninsula. It became clear that throughout 2025 and 2026 the Ukrainians had set the conditions for isolating the peninsula and making it untenable for Russian forces.

Ukraine in recent weeks and months Increased military attacks Against Russian air defenses, oil depots, fuel facilities, energy infrastructure and Russian bases on the peninsula.

Ukraine is also intensifying its military pressure on the Russian land bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. Russia’s key logistics route is now restricted to military traffic, facing a persistent ban on Ukrainian drones, leaving much of it unusable.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are systematically isolating Crimea and, in doing so, turn off the lights for Putin. On Wednesday the Kyiv Independent reported: Half of Crimea is now without electricity Because of the Ukrainian strikes. Russian authorities in Crimea not only ration fuel but to stop all gasoline sales to civilians.

Putin’s end is nearing in Crimea. As we and retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges have long discussed, Crimea The decisive area of this war. Ukraine doesn’t even need to take it back; it just needs to make it untenable for Russian military use. That day is fast approaching

The Crimean conflict will likely result in Ukraine eventually destroying Putin’s $4 billion Kerch Bridge. Will Putin be able to politically avoid losing Crimea to Ukraine? We highly doubt this.

Mark Toth He writes on national security and foreign policy. Colonel (Retired) Jonathan Sweet He served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are co-founders of INTREP360 and INTREP360 Intelligence Report On Substack.

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