Reds vs Pirates prediction: Why betting the under 8.5 runs makes sense

With all the playoff basketball going on, it seems like I’ve completely forgotten about baseball. However, this is not the case. I’m still watching and we’ve recently raised some money from a few bets I’ve placed on the game. I have a really strong perspective on today’s game between the Reds and Pirates in Pittsburgh.

The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, and that’s not something I expected to write about this season. They made the playoffs last year, but considering the lack of moves in the offseason, I didn’t expect them to be great.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about the Reds is how good they have been away from home this season. There wasn’t a really good road team last year. Except for the Astros, those over .500 made it to the postseason.

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Today, the Reds are trying to continue this success at the top with Rhett Lowder. This year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He made six starts during the year, fully half of which came at home and on the road. He has an ERA a full innings lower on the road than at home, allowing five earned runs over 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in a game against the Marlins. The Pirates are just 2-for-11 against Lowder in his career.

Pirates are better than last year but are not a very successful club at the moment. They’re hovering around .500 for the season, which is about the same as they did last year. The team still needs to figure out how to score goals, but they are in better shape than last year.

Before this series, they lost five games in a row; they lost one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe this was just a bad development, maybe it was a sign of things to come. They allowed 35 runs and struck out 18 in those games. That works out to an average of seven points and 3.6 points allowed.

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio on April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)

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Trying to get the Pirates back on track is Carmen Mlodzinski. He is 1-2 on the year with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He was much better at home, but most of his opportunities came away. He is pitching to a 1.69 ERA and has allowed just two earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched. In his lone home start, he pitched six scoreless innings and allowed two hits and two walks. In his history, he has allowed just three hits in 27 innings pitched against the Reds.

We have two starters that are better for them today. Mlodzinski is better at home, Lowder is better away. These are still small sample sizes, but they are somewhat encouraging. The fact that the Pirates are bleeding out has me worried that the bottom line will be fried. The Reds were a little bit everywhere, allowing home runs and runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on April 21, 2026. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)

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In this particular case, I think it makes the most sense to support the underside. Both teams are playing higher scoring games right now, but we may see fewer runs with these two pitchers.

Follow David on X/Twitter for more sports betting information and games: @futureprez2024