Reform can beat Burnham in pivotal Makerfield by-election if Restore voters switch to Nigel Farage’s party, poll shows

There have been very few polls of voting intentions in the Makerfield byelection – such polls are difficult and expensive to conduct – but the few polls published have all pointed to the same trend: without Restore, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would have had a much better chance of winning on Thursday.

A poll this weekend by More in Common and UCL Policy Lab shows Andy Burnham on 45 per cent, Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40 per cent and Restore on 8 per cent. This means Mr. Burnham could be defeated if Restore voters switch to Reform.

As Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said: ‘Andy Burnham is heading for a Makerfield win thanks to Restore Britain.’

In other words, supporters of the far-right party are potentially paving the way for a radical left-wing government, given that Mr Burnham has said he would challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the top job if he wins.

The survey of 515 adults at Makerfield is the third to show Restore has had a significant impact on the campaign; More than one in ten voters have not yet decided how they will vote.

Nigel Farage photographed with Makerfield by-election candidate Robert Kenyon in his constituency on 10 June

Rupert Lowe’s (pictured 13 June 2026) party Restore Britain could cost Reform the Makerfield by-election victory on 18 June

No other party is likely to retain its deposits. The Green Party polls at 3 percent, the Conservatives at 2 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 1 percent.

Mr Tryl says: ‘Andy Burnham looks to have an advantage heading into the final week of the Makerfield by-election.

‘But given that he is only five points behind Reform and more than one in ten voters are still undecided, the last few days could be crucial.’

More in Common, a member of the British Survey Council, surveyed the Makerfield sample by phone and online between 28 May and 12 June.