Russia has only pain to show from four years in Ukraine – but Europe must do more
When Vladimir Putin sarcastically launches his euphemistic speech “special military operation” against Ukrainian Four years ago it was supposed to take about a week. According to the Kremlin’s plan at that time, Volodymyr Zelensky – A supposedly Jewish “Nazi” was expected to flee Kiev to a comfortable haven in the West.
It’s safe to say that things didn’t go as planned. Ukrainian territory was frequently occupied after being razed to the ground, and the most obscene degree of force was used against civilians.
But after some successful counter-offensives by Ukraine, Russia today occupies less of Ukraine’s sovereign territory by the early stages of the warHis army proved poorly trained, poorly led, ill-equipped, undisciplined, and not entirely loyal, as demonstrated by the rebellion orchestrated by the Wagner mercenary leader. Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023This came surprisingly close to overthrowing the Russian President himself.
There is Russia He threatened the West with nuclear weaponsIt was of no use and its economy was ruined. crippled by investment shutdowns and sanctions. This nominal superpower, whose Gross Domestic Product is approximately the same as Italy’s, relies in no small part on aid from China, North Korea and Iran. This in itself is a national humiliation.
Such small, incremental gains on the battlefield by Putin’s forces have been achieved at enormous cost; According to reports, there are 1.3 million dead and injured. With monthly losses of more than 30,000, even Russia will have difficulty keeping its “meat grinder” afloat; especially Moscow and St. If conscription is avoided in politically sensitive major cities such as St. Petersburg.
Yet, Compared to battle lines in 2024Russia now occupies only 1 percent more Ukrainian territory than it did then. No wonder Putin wants the rest of Donbas to be handed over without a fight. His aim was to “Russify” all of Ukraine, but he only succeeded in awakening the country’s desire to become freer and more European.
Far from forcing NATO to withdraw, it expanded, with Sweden and Finland adding significant weight to Russia’s western flank and the Arctic region. European NATO has become more united in many respects and clearer about the reality of Putin’s intentions. Absolutely no one can rely on them, perhaps not even the Russian President himself, who prefers to seize opportunities as they arise. However, as he said on the first day, there can be no doubt that re-establishing Russia’s post-1945 dominance in Eastern Europe is the clear and primary goal.
But this also brings any assessment of this war into the question of Western solidarity and the response to Putin’s undisguised aggression. The answer is: The West was tragically weakand if the Ukrainians had shown some of their strength of sustained determination and courage, then by now the Russians might have been so weakened that they could have sued for peace instead of playing games in negotiations with Donald Trump. infinitely pure messenger Steve Witkoff.
Mr Trump’s second coming was indeed an unwelcome resurgence for most European powers, and his “peace plan” – in effect a demand for Kiev’s surrender on Russia’s terms – is clearly a mortal threat to Ukraine’s independence. At best, this would tear the country apart and leave it open to a future return of Putin’s armies and missiles, once Putin reassembles and repairs his war machine.
In President Trump, the Russian leader has found a friend and a person too close to an ideological ally, a friend who derides European democracies for nearly “destroying civilizations.” As the Kremlin does. There had to be a united European response to this moral vacuum. However, everyone concerned, especially the Kremlin, is exposing this terrible weakness.
The European Union is not a defense union. Still, it is deplorable that he cannot overcome the vetoes of Russia-friendly states such as Hungary and Slovakia to send more money to Ukraine.
Poland, one of the few countries that spends the necessary money for defense, cannot allocate troops to maintain any ceasefire in Ukraine for fear of Russian attacks. In short, the Macron-Starmer “coalition of the willing” looks more like an agreement of the reluctant.
If President Zelensky is right in this decision of Putin already started the third world warThen the decision to be made at this point should be that Ukraine has overcome this crisis and Russia has not won this first stage. But given the US departure and Europe’s turmoil, the next phase, which could last another year or two, will be much more decisive. It would be reassuring if there were much evidence that European leaders truly understood the disaster facing their people.
