Senate bars senators from prediction markets over security concerns

No one could have predicted this.

But if you did, you could make a lot of money.

In an unusual move, the United States Senate voted unanimously to ban senators and staff from playing in prediction markets.

“This is a national security risk,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, DY. “The possibility that a member’s vote could be affected by a bet is reason enough to slam the door.”

Senate quietly bans lawmakers from betting on prediction markets

You cannot predict the future. But now you can’t even bet on it in the Senate.

Especially real world events.

As if the stock market might crash. The fate of the economy. War. Terrorism.

Or who will wear which dress at the Met Gala.

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The biggest concern on Capitol Hill is the potential betting on the fate of the legislation. Or approval of candidates. There is bipartisan concern that speculation in prediction markets could influence political outcomes.

Sen., R-Ohio. “Entry into a prediction market in any way or attempt to place a bet where we may have insider information undermines the trust our voters have in us,” Bernie Moreno said.

Moreno has pushed to change the rules regarding senators. Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., amended Moreno’s proposal to include Senate aides.

This only applies to the Senate. Now. The palace is trying to catch up.

R-Va. “I think that anywhere your role in Congress has the potential for individual benefit should be tightly controlled,” Rep. Rob Wittman said when asked about the possibility of a similar measure in the House.

Remember, under the Constitution, the House and Senate can make their own rules.

“We must never allow Congress to become a casino,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY). (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Senate’s maneuver comes just weeks after the Fed arrested a US special forces soldier with access to classified information and then bet on the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Virginia U.S. Senate candidate Mark Moran is betting he’ll run for office. Moran later cashed in with his own bid after entering the race.

“Our voters should know that our only guiding light is what’s best for our state. What’s best for the people in our states. And what’s best for the United States of America,” Moreno said.

“We must never allow Congress to become a casino,” Schumer said. “The possibility that members’ votes may be influential due to betting is a sufficient reason to prohibit members from interfering in prediction markets.”

But Schumer wants prediction market bans to apply to the executive branch as well. The New York Democrat argues that the Trump Administration has “demonstrated a deeply disturbing propensity for corruption and self-dealing.”

Senate passes measure banning lawmakers from engaging in prediction betting

This brings us to another thing many Congressional Democrats want to exclude the executive branch from: stock trading.

But here’s the problem. Congress has shown false commitment to enforcing its own ban on lawmakers and stock trading aides. But neither the House nor the Senate implemented a blanket ban.

It’s a dead topic. And it’s been like this for years.

“Send me a bill banning insider trading by Members of Congress and I will sign it tomorrow,” former President Obama instructed in his State of the Union address in January 2012.

“Let’s also make sure that Members of Congress cannot corruptly profit from insider information,” President Trump said in his State of the Union message in February.

It’s almost mid-2026, and Congress still isn’t there.

In his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump expressed a desire to “ensure that Members of Congress cannot corruptly profit from insider information.” (Jabin Botsford/Getty Images)

The late Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-Y) and former Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash) were the most ardent proponents of the Congressional stock trading ban, which dates back to 2006. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) made hundreds of stock trades in 1999 and 2000. This caught Baird’s attention.

“If there’s a way to profit from this, someone has probably found a way to do it,” Baird said. “And it’s not illegal.”

Congress finally passed the STOCK Act in 2012. This bill stands for “Stop Congressional Information Trade.” There were concerns that MPs had financial, economic and political intelligence. Therefore, they were able to buy and sell stocks based on information that bordered on “insider trading.”

But the STOCK Act did not prohibit lawmakers from playing on Wall Street. Additional financial disclosures were required only regarding when lawmakers and their aides traded stocks.

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President Obama’s plea in 2012 certainly helped lawmakers pass the STOCK Act just days later. But this was not a ban on “insider trading” as the former president suggested. This just required additional transparency.

The stalemate in stock trading is surprising some lawmakers.

“I don’t know why this is such a challenge in the House,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va. “I think it’s completely wrong for any member to say that they should be able to trade stocks. I think that undermines trust in the institution. Even for members who don’t trade on insider information.”

House Administration Committee Chairman Brian Steil, R-Wis., has a bill that would restrict lawmakers from trading in stocks.

“If you want to day trade, go to Wall Street. To lead this country, come to Washington,” Steil said.

R-Wis. “If you want to day trade, go to Wall Street,” said House Administration Committee Chairman Brian Steil. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

But this bill was shelved. This is based in part on efforts by Democrats in Congress to extend the stock trading ban to the executive branch. This is something many Republicans are reluctant to do.

“There is no justification or logic in allowing the president of any party or the vice president of any party to engage in stock trading while they wield the tremendous power of the presidency, vice president and executive branch,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-Y.

Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., believes the stock trading issue is evolving. He doubts voters will be able to put up with their colleagues’ market activities for much longer.

“We know there are a lot of colleagues who are still trading stocks. I think the American public is a lot more informed about it now. And it’s very unpopular. So I think the tide has turned and it’s going to become untenable for any member to support this,” Ansari said. “I think more people have more information. So what a Member of Congress could get away with even five years ago is not possible today.”

As with many things when it comes to ethics in politics, this is not necessarily impropriety. But perception impropriety In the beginning, the people do not have much respect for the Congress. Many voters believe that the “ruling class” has special access to information that allows them to game the system to their own economic advantage. This insecurity could grow even further as Congress fails to ensure its own security.

While we can’t predict the future, people can certainly shape it. Congress has many tools at its disposal to shape this future. The question is whether lawmakers turn this opportunity to their advantage.

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So will Congress approve the stock trading ban? The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

In other words, don’t bet on it.