Shrinking weapon stockpiles and regime-change uncertainty: doubts shadow US-Israel war on Iran | US-Israel war on Iran
US government reviews of the war in Iran show that the Trump administration is ill-equipped for a regime change war, according to reports.
Washington Post reported A secret intelligence review on Saturday morning found that the war in Iran is unlikely to topple the Iranian establishment, despite the Trump administration’s desire to continue its attacks.
At the same time, Democrats warn that airstrikes on Iran are reducing U.S. stockpiles of certain weapons; It’s a point of concern that emerged in a closed-door briefing between Trump administration officials and members of Congress earlier this week.
Despite ongoing negotiations, the United States and Israel began bombing Iran last week during a campaign that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian leaders. Iran launched retaliatory attacks targeting Israel, US facilities in the region, and many Middle Eastern countries hosting US bases.
Since the attacks began, the Trump administration has claimed that Iran is trying to negotiate a ceasefire. multiple reports It shows the exact opposite.
For years, Iran hawks in the United States have been pushing for a war of regime change, warning that Iran’s nuclear program is close to producing nuclear weapons. Since last April, Iran and the United States have been engaged in negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly said its nuclear program is entirely for civilian purposes.
The bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel and the USA last June led to a significant increase in tensions between the two countries. Negotiations continued, but despite these, the United States and Israel launched large-scale attacks on Iran last week.
The USA and Israel have been bombing Iran for a week, hitting government buildings and military facilities. They also hit civilian buildings, hospitals and schools. On the first day of the bombing campaign 168 young girls They were killed in a direct attack on their schools. Associated Press later reported It was stated that the deadly attack probably came from the USA.
Trump spoke Saturday at the Inter-American Shield summit in Florida, a gathering of right-wing leaders from across the western hemisphere, just a few hours after the Iranian president. he apologized For missile attacks on neighboring countries.
“We are doing very well in Iran, you see the result,” Trump said. “And it was magnificent. In three days we disabled 42 navy ships, some very large. That was the end of the navy. We disabled the air force. We cut off their communications and all telecommunications were cut off.”
“They’re bad people, just bad people,” he added. “Eight months ago they would have had nuclear weapons. And they were crazy and they would have used it. So we did the world a favor.”
But US intelligence points to a different potential outcome, albeit a long and aggressive war.
As the Post reports, a secret report by the National Intelligence Council shows that a bombing campaign may not dislodge Iran’s military and religious establishment. The report, completed in mid-February, outlined two potential U.S. actions. In both cases, the outcome will remain the same: the Iranian government will follow the protocols by which the successor to the country’s religious leader will be determined.
After Khamenei was assassinated last week, the Iranian government quickly appointed an interim leadership council consisting of Iran’s president and other senior officials. The council is tasked with choosing the country’s next religious leader.
Intelligence officials said it was “unlikely” for the Iranian opposition to take control of the country.
As concerns grow about U.S. weapons stockpiles, some Democratic senators worry that with the rapid use of missiles and advanced weapons, other countries dependent on U.S. military aid, such as Ukraine and others, will not be able to effectively protect themselves.
Connecticut senator Richard Blumenthal in an interview with Time Magazine in question He was “deeply concerned about Ukraine,” adding that the U.S. military’s “resources and materiel are limited, and I think at some point we’re going to have a hard time saying what’s going to happen to Ukraine.”
Another expert who spoke to the AP said the concern was about possible future military tensions rather than the conflict in Iran.
“I’m not particularly worried that we’re going to be really exhausted during this conflict,” Ryan Brobst, a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who focuses on U.S. defense strategy, said in an interview with the AP. “It’s about deterring China and Russia the day after this conflict ends.”
Weapons manufacturers have already agreed to increase their production. Lockheed Martin on Friday in question It agreed to “quadruple production of critical munitions.”
