SNP are the latest proof that things change quickly in politics

A year or so ago the Scottish National Party appeared to be in deep trouble.

They suffered a major defeat in the general elections and the number of MPs fell from 48 to just nine.

In just over a year they had managed to have three leaders: Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf and then John Swinney.

This was a rate of attrition that would make even the Conservative Party blush in recent years.

There was also a high-profile and long-running police investigation into the SNP’s finances involving Sturgeon, who was told earlier this year she would not face any action.

There were also fierce debates about gender identity.

And the SNP has been in devolved government in Scotland since May 2007, when you couldn’t even buy an iPhone.

Just ahead of next May’s Scottish Parliament elections, the electoral pull appeared to be catching up with them, and it was catching up with a vengeance.

But if you need another reminder that our domestic politics remains a buffet full of competitiveness and unpredictability, the SNP is the ultimate case study.

Swinney brought stability to a party that had for some time preferred the opposite.

And support was fragmented between his rivals (Labour, Reform and others).

Here is the situation of the pollsters More in Common put this:

“Since last year’s general election, Labour’s support in Scotland has more than halved, while the SNP’s position has improved marginally. Although not seeing as significant a rise as in England, Reform has emerged as a potential second party after the SNP in Scotland, suppressing the Conservatives’ vote share and eating into Labour’s votes.”

His analysis continues as follows:

“Despite losing by 11 points in the constituency vote, this result would leave the SNP just shy of a majority at Holyrood, mostly due to fragmentation in other parties.”

Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction. But still fascinating.

The mood among SNP party members and senior figures at the conference was cheerful and optimistic.

The party feels competitive again and is hopeful not only of victory next year, but also of that outright majority.

Winning again, majority or not, would be a remarkable achievement.

If it does this, the party will enter its third consecutive decade of power.

A majority is a big demand because the electoral system makes it difficult to achieve a majority.

But this is important because the SNP’s latest attempt to drum up debate for a new independence referendum relies on securing a majority.

The party’s logic goes like this: the last time they persuaded the government in Westminster was a few years ago when they won a majority at Holyrood.

Alex Salmond won this majority in 2011. A referendum followed in 2014.

The current Prime Minister’s logic continues: They need a majority again to point to the precedent of fifteen years ago.

The snag is that the UK government has made clear, including in its manifesto, that it opposes another referendum.

Privately, senior SNP members think Sir Keir Starmer could stand down from Downing Street if they win a majority and Labor loses power in the Senedd in Wales and does poorly in local elections in many parts of England.

There are a lot of what ifs out there and who knows.

But even if Sir Keir had passed away, this manifesto would still be something Labor could point to.

And the SNP will ask again how voluntary UK unity really is if there is no mechanism available for another referendum.

Critics of the SNP point out that internal records, such as those on the NHS, housing and death tolls among drug addicts, are dismal.

The party counters with its own riff on what it sees as the biggest hit: for every staircase between the ground and first floor of the conference center, there was a staircase.

These include free college tuition and free prescriptions.

But something else is happening.

In Scotland there is a near 50/50 split on the constitutional question (independence or not).

This is a nation divided down the middle.

This gives the SNP a deep well of potential support.

It offers the opportunity to continue to defy, to suffer defeat, the undeniable weight of a long stay in office under other circumstances.

Let’s see.

In local, international and UK politics, traditions continue to be upended in many ways.

This is also true, and the SNP and their rivals know it, that things can change quickly.