Social Security COLA in 2027: Cooling inflation lowers estimate
People shop for groceries at a Wegman’s store in Brooklyn on July 13, 2026, in New York City.
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Cooling inflation has also cooled some experts’ expectations for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which could be between 3.7% and 3.8% under new estimates.
Social Security COLA Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson estimates that rate could be 3.7% in 2027. That figure is a full 1 percentage point below the 4.7% COLA for 2027 that Johnson forecast last month.
“This is a significant fall in inflation and one we have rarely seen in June CPI data in the last five years,” Johnson said in a statement. he said.
New government data released on Tuesday shows the consumer price index rose 3.5% over the last 12 months as of June. This was below expectations due to the decline in energy prices.
Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group, is forecasting the Social Security COLA for 2027 could be 3.8%unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Of course, these estimates may change. The following year’s official COLA is usually announced by the Social Security Administration in October.
Social Security benefits are adjusted annually through cost-of-living adjustments to help monthly checks keep up with inflation.
According to the Social Security Administration, annual COLA has averaged 3.1% over the past 10 years. More than 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries saw a 2.8% increase in benefits in 2026.
How might Medicare premiums change in 2027?
Confidence in retirement has decreased among retirees, according to the January report questionnaire conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research firm; and Greenwald Research, a research consulting firm.
In the survey covering 1,045 retired people, the trust of retirees decreased by 5 points to 73%. According to the results, the biggest concerns include inflation, debt, healthcare costs, housing costs and possible changes to the retirement system. According to the survey, two out of every five retirees said their health care costs were higher than expected.
A medical expense — standard premiums Medicare Part BAnnual Medicare, which covers medically necessary and preventive services, could be $209.50 a month in 2027, according to trustees’ estimates report It was published in June. This is up from $202.90 per month in 2026; that is, $6.60, or a 3.3% increase. High-income beneficiaries may pay additional surcharges.
“That’s relatively low,” Johnson said. “The average increase in Part B is generally about 5.4% per year, and that has been the case for the last 10 years.”
The initial deductible for Medicare Part D, which covers prescription drugs, will increase from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027. According to the trustee report. Meanwhile, the disaster threshold, or out-of-pocket spending limit, will be set at $2,400 next year. It was $2,100 in 2026. According to the report, these new thresholds have been finalized.
Correction: Standard premiums for Medicare Part B will increase in 2027 from $202.90 per month in 2026; that is, an increase of $6.60 or 3.3%. An earlier version described the numbers incorrectly.
