SpaceX, OpenAI valuations to leapfrog Berkshire Hathaway, traders say

There are several mega tech IPOs ahead, and traders expect them to push Warren Buffett aside on the first day of trading.

SpaceX officially filed to go public on Nasdaq on Wednesday. On the same day, reports spread that OpenAI would confidentially file for an IPO on Friday.

Following OpenAI reports, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 92% chance that the ChatGPT owner will file for an IPO this year. Investors also think there’s a 69% chance that its chief private rival, Anthropic, will officially go public this year.

All are expected to trade at valuations above $1 trillion in their early days, according to traders at Polymarket; This will also be a public record.

SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion in February, and Polymarket investors think there is a 56% chance that SpaceX will close its first day of trading at over $2.2 trillion. OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion, and traders think it has a 65% chance of finishing its first public trading day above $1.4 trillion.

Traders, meanwhile, estimate a 47% chance Anthropic will close at more than $1.8 trillion on its first day of public trading. The company is reportedly in talks for a new round of financing at a valuation of $900 billion.

These valuations would put the companies firmly in the $1 trillion club and likely go above that. Berkshire Hathaway market cap is currently $1.03 trillion. They would even challenge Meta And Tesla’s Market cap of approximately $1.5 trillion.

Deutsche Bank analyst Adrian Cox noted in his note on Thursday that Berkshire Hathaway generated over $350 billion in revenue last year. This compares with SpaceX’s revenue of $18.67 billion in 2025. OpenAI reportedly generated $13.1 billion in revenue last year.

Anthropic’s 2025 revenues aren’t as clear, but reports on Wednesday said the company is on track for a second-quarter profit on nearly $11 billion in revenue, a first for owner Claude. SpaceX and OpenAI are unprofitable companies despite their huge valuations.

Big valuations have come as companies remain private longer, thanks in part to increased ways to raise capital outside public markets. But the rapid succession of these IPOs has led to concerns that there won’t be enough buyers to sustain these high valuations.

Cox poured cold water on these fears.

“While there are concerns about the market’s ability to absorb a series of IPOs this year valued at several hundred billion dollars, overall they will enter the U.S. stock market valued at approximately $70 trillion,” he wrote. “That’s five times larger in nominal terms than it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. At that time there were an average of almost 500 IPOs a year, compared to around 120 this decade.”

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.