Stabilise the streets before the ballot!

The fundamental function of any state is to establish a monopoly on violence, but from the border in New Delhi it is horrifyingly clear that the Bangladeshi state has temporarily lost this grip, seeing over 1,000 deaths and continuing religious extremism and violence since the 2024 uprising and ongoing unrest making free voting impossible. The conversation in Dhaka has been dominated by the breathless mechanics of the election programme, where dates are debated and political parties maneuver for positions, but this chatter ignores the deafening gunshots that have characterized the last eighteen months. Since the 2024 uprising began, more than a thousand citizens have lost their lives and perhaps more than 10 times that number have been injured and lost personal property in a spasm of violence that has yet to fully subside. To suggest that a free, fair and inclusive election can be held in this environment of widespread fear is not just optimism; It is a dangerous misconception.

An election requires more than just ballot boxes and ink; It requires a safe environment where a voter can walk to a polling station without fear of being beaten and a candidate can speak without the threat of assassination. Currently, this environment does not exist in Bangladesh. The reality on the ground is that the security apparatus is fragmented. The morale of the police force, which has been used for years as an open tool of political pressure, is now deeply demoralized and police capacity has deteriorated and their morale has deteriorated, with gaps in patrols documented in many areas. There is a visible security vacuum filled by local vigilantism, political thugs and opportunist criminal syndicates. These are the forces that would control the voting centers if there were an election tomorrow. They would determine who would vote and who would be turned away at the door. Intimidation is no longer subtle; is brash and violent. We have already seen examples of political rallies turning into bloody fights and potential candidates being threatened in their own homes. Asking the Electoral Commission to conduct a national vote in this atmosphere is like asking a captain to steer a rudderless ship in a hurricane.

Moreover, the civil administration, which is the backbone of the electoral process, is currently paralyzed. District Commissioners and local judges are overwhelmed with the task of maintaining basic order, let alone managing the logistical behemoth of the general elections. The administrative machinery needs time to reset, purge partisan agents deployed by the previous regime, and rebuild an impartial police force that enjoys the trust of society. This can’t happen in a few weeks. Rebuilding a police force requires months of training, review and civil society participation. A concerted effort is needed to restore the chain of command and ensure officers remain loyal to the constitution rather than a political party. Rushing this process for the sake of an election timetable will only produce a security force as compromised as the security force it replaces.

The risk of holding an election under the shadow of a gun is that the outcome will be inherently controversial. If a significant portion of voters stay at home out of fear for their safety, turnout will be artificially low. A government elected with a turnout of twenty or thirty percent has no authority to govern. It will be seen as illegitimate from day one, and this lack of legitimacy will further increase instability. Opposition forces, no matter who they are, will inevitably claim that their supporters were prevented from voting through violence, and they will probably be right. This will lead to a new cycle of protests, blockades and street fights, dragging the country into the abyss it is trying to escape. We have seen this pattern play out before in the region, where early elections held in unstable security environments only served to crystallize divisions rather than resolve them. So all they have to do is look at Pakistan.

From New Delhi’s telescopic sights, Bangladesh’s chaotic election is a security nightmare. The controversial outcome, which has led to protracted social unrest, creates the perfect conditions for cross-border militancy and illegal migration; But this situation never stopped. India needs a stable eastern flank, and stability can only come from a government elected through a process widely recognized as free and secure. It is in the interest of the entire region that the interim administration in Dhaka takes time to stabilize the streets first. The priority should be to recover thousands of firearms that have been reported to have been looted and a significant portion of which cannot be found, to disperse the armed cadres of political parties and to return daily life to normal.

The delay argument stems from the necessity of survival. Legitimacy is the currency of democracy, and you can’t buy legitimacy in a market defined by fear. The people of Bangladesh have fought and shed blood for the right to elect their leaders, and they deserve to exercise this right peacefully. They deserve to vote with their heads held high and without looking over their shoulders. Forcing them to go to the polls now, while the wounds of the uprising are still fresh and the streets are still dangerous, is a betrayal of the promise of democracy. The state must first prove that it can protect its citizens; Only then can he ask them for their authority. Restore the law, restore order, and only then hold the vote.