Stefanik opens commanding lead in NY GOP governor primary race poll

SPECIAL: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Y) has launched a commanding lead in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary, locking down endorsements from GOP precinct chairs, state lawmakers and Conservative Party leaders across the state; The consolidation of support that party officials say leaves Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with virtually no path to the nomination.

Stefanik’s support now accounts for more than 75% of the New York Republican Party’s weighted vote; that’s an overwhelming advantage that makes him the presumptive nominee and requires any rivals to get on the ballot.

Under New York rules, that means collecting at least 15,000 signatures from registered Republicans in the state. Gothamist reported.

Party officials describe the scale of Stefanik’s initial support as unprecedented for the GOP’s recent gubernatorial race, especially this far into the state convention.

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They say Stefanik’s name recognition, national fundraising network and county-level organizing effectively shut down the primaries before they even began, while Blakeman failed to gain traction outside Long Island.

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Rep. Elise Stefanik hopes to unseat R-Y Democrat Kathy Hochul. Stefanik’s campaign says Hocul is “the worst governor in America.” (Faith and Freedom Coalition)

Stefanik has a much more broad-based candidacy in New York.

“Elise is honored to receive the support of 58 GOP county party chairs, representing more than 75% of the New York Republican Party’s weighted congressional vote,” Stefanik spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin told Fox News Digital.

“According to two independent polls, Elise is the strongest candidate against Hochul and has the highest name ID and most favorable polling. Her strong statewide support continues to grow as she gains more support from major GOP leaders, including 40 of New York’s 45 Conservative Party organizations. New York Republicans are fully united behind the common goal of firing Kathy Hochul to save New York, and they have placed their full confidence in Elise to do so.”

This consolidation extends far beyond district headquarters. Fourteen Republican state senators, including Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt, have endorsed Stefanik’s candidacy for governor. 10 county executives from across New York also add weight from suburban, exurban and rural areas that traditionally determine GOP turnout. Out-of-state chairmen who have met with both candidates say Blakeman’s attempts to change the narrative have failed.

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Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, center, speaks alongside elected officials and business leaders against corporate tax increases on Nov. 17, 2025. (District Management Office)

“We appreciated County Executive Blakeman meeting with us during his visit to the Upstate, but nothing discussed at the meeting affected our unwavering support for Elise Stefanik and her campaign to save New York,” said Liz Joy, Schenectady County GOP chair. “Elise has consistently served our Upstate communities, and we believe she is the right person to meet the challenges facing New Yorkers.”

Trish Turner, chairwoman of the Ontario Region GOP and Finger Lakes regional chair, said Stefanik’s early organizing impressed leaders across the province.

“It was a great honor to host Congresswoman Elise Stefanik at my home for a gathering of county Republican chairmen from the Finger Lakes, Western New York, Central New York and the Southern Tier,” Turner said.

“The energy and enthusiasm in the room was inspiring, and it was clear that many leaders from across our districts were excited about her candidacy for NYS governor. Congresswoman Stefanik’s vision, leadership, and deep commitment to New Yorkers were evident throughout our conversations. Upstate Presidents in attendance expressed not only their strong support, but also genuine enthusiasm to join in and help build momentum in the months ahead.”

Dutchess County GOP Chairman Mike McCormack echoed that sentiment, telling Fox News Digital: “I’m with Elise and that’s not changing. We’ve got to focus on saving our state, and she’s the hope of New York.”

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President Donald Trump is greeted by Bruce Blakeman, district administrator for Nassau County, New York, after arriving at Republic Airport aboard Air Force One in Farmingdale, NY, on September 26, 2025. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Even as Stefanik’s margins grew, Blakeman continued to visit upstate counties, trying to establish herself as an executive-focused candidate leading one of the state’s largest suburban counties. In previous public statements, Blakeman has suggested that Stefanik’s national profile has distracted from issues specific to New York. But GOP chairmen say those arguments don’t change their “unwavering support” for Stefanik.

Blakeman’s electoral record has also become a talking point among Republican officials, who have described Stefanik as a proven winner. During his decade-long political career, Blakeman lost the statewide auditor race by more than 30 points in 1998, lost the Nassau County Legislature race in 1999, dropped out of the 2009 New York City mayoral contest, lost the 2010 U.S. Senate primary by more than 20 points, and lost the congressional race in NY-14 in 2014; the same year Stefanik won her seat.

Stefanik, on the contrary, has never lost an election and increases every year what Blakeman has increased in many periods. Stefanik captured more than 72% of the weighted vote on the first day she launched her gubernatorial campaign and has only widened her margin since.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-Y., leaves a House Republican Conference meeting on the budget reconciliation bill with President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol on May 20, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

With the support of 40 of New York’s 45 Conservative Party organizations, which control their own separate ballots, he is positioned to secure both the GOP and Conservative Party nominations well before either party’s convention. Early unity around Stefanik could allow Republicans to focus resources on the general election well ahead of schedule; That’s a rare advantage for GOP candidates in deep blue New York.

The New York Republican Party’s convention is scheduled for early next year, and the petitioning period will begin shortly thereafter. If Stefanik’s support continues throughout the convention, it would directly guarantee the nomination and allow the candidate to try the 15,000-signature petition process rather than seeking the party’s official endorsement.

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For now, pollster James Johnson says the primary is “a done deal.”

“Stefanik appears to be dominating the Republican vote. It’s a done deal,” Johnson said.