Strait of Hormuz reopening may take weeks
Ships in the Strait of Hormuz as viewed from Musandam, Oman, June 15, 2026.
Stringer | Reuters
Industry executives and maritime experts have warned that it will take weeks to clear ship cargo in the Strait of Hormuz as the critical waterway prepares to reopen.
Oil prices initially fell below $80 a barrel on news that the United States and Iran had agreed to a deal to end their war, as traders expected the resupply of oil, LNG and other goods after nearly four months of war to cause congestion in maritime traffic by ships unable or unwilling to pass through the Bosphorus.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. It calls for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran without tolls for at least 60 days.
But market watchers told CNBC that it could take weeks, and in some cases even months, to provide the market with enough physical supply to keep prices stable below $80.
Operators, port authorities and energy companies in the Gulf maintain a holding pattern, with key logistics and security issues still unresolved.
“The most likely scenario is a phased restart with some sort of traffic management mechanism involving Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, editorial vice president of Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.
“But the unresolved questions are significant: whether ships need prior authorization, whether Iran will charge a service fee, whether foreign naval escorts will be accepted, and whether mines or other risks require a clearance process.”
Why is reopening the Strait of Hormuz complicated?
Even after a political agreement to reopen the Bosphorus, industry participants say restarting traffic will be complex and gradual.
“A restart of Hormuz following a disruption of this nature is unprecedented,” Sharpe said. “A cautious operating assumption would be a gradual increase rather than an immediate return to more than 100 crossings per day.”
Before the war, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed weekly cargo ship transits of approximately 650 to 770 ships per week through the Strait of Hormuz; this was equivalent to approximately 90 to 110 crossings per day in both directions.
Economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology told CNBC that shipping data has yet to show a meaningful increase in oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Iraq.
Ships were loaded and sent offshore to wait in the Dammam region, which includes Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura export complex, according to QuantCube senior economist Alan Lemangnen.
“Since June 8, tankers leaving Dammam have waited much longer at anchor before leaving,” he told CNBC. “This suggests that a queue of ships may have formed offshore rather than within port facilities.”
Many of the UAE’s successful crude oil flows through Hormuz involved “going dark”, where ships turn off their GPS systems to avoid detection. Kpler said ground shipping activity will continue until Washington and Tehran reach a clear agreement on freedom of navigation.
How big is Hormuz’s shipping backlog?
Even if energy supply flows recover quickly, supply chain disruption may continue. In a note published on Monday, Kpler estimated 118 tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Kpler analysts estimate it could take 10 to 15 days to clear the backlog, but cautioned that this would not mean a full recovery. In the note, they said the initial increase would be “purely mechanical” and would provide “an early increase in throughputs without increasing base throughput.”
If hundreds of ships are waiting to pass through the Bosphorus, prioritization becomes critical. Industry experts expect oil tankers and LNG carriers to receive priority access due to their importance in global markets, while container shipments and other cargo have the potential to face longer delays.
“Prioritization may not be purely commercial,” Sharpe said. “Authorities may also consider the ship’s location, direction of travel, flag, ownership, perceived political risk, cargo type, security situation, and whether the ship already provides the required transit information.”
“The biggest uncertainty is whether this will be handled transparently or through interim operational decisions,” he added.
Traders and manufacturers in the region are already reporting higher raw material prices and shipment delays; This underlines how quickly the disruptions in Hormuz are reflected in the regional economies.
Insurers and security checks are important
In order for traffic to return to normal, the navy must approve safe passage corridors, and this is expected to take at least a few days. War risk insurers must reinstate cover that ships cannot move in this situation. Authorities in Oman, the UAE and Iran will also need to coordinate shipping lanes, convoy systems or transit windows, while ships and crews positioned for diversion or delay will need to be reactivated, refueled and scheduled.
“Insurers will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe passages, absence of interference, clarity on mine risk and no re-escalation,” Sharpe said. He added that pricing will likely remain highly sensitive to the ship’s flag, ownership, Israeli or US nexus, trading history and cargo.
“Insurers will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe crossings, absence of interference, clarity in mine risk and no re-escalation. Current pricing is likely to remain highly sensitive to flag, ownership, Israeli or US connection, trading history and cargo. A sustained reduction in additional premiums will depend on sustainable historical crossing volumes and confidence that reopening is irreversible.”
“A sustained reduction in surcharges will depend on sustainable historical transit volumes and confidence that reopening is irreversible,” he said.
There is also a security component where Iran and the United States need to coordinate on demining; This is another process that can slow things down.
“Until there is complete certainty that there is no mine, the process will be slow and take several weeks as only a small passage can be safely achieved,” Nikos Petrakakos, managing director of marine investment manager Tufton, told CNBC via email. “Once there is clarity on the mines, this could take less than a week. But I think most people will be cautious at first.”
Pointing to the Red Sea as a cautionary comparison, Sharpe said many operators remained reluctant to return even after de-escalating signals that the Houthis had stopped firing on ships without evidence of continued security.
When can shipping via Hormuz normalize?
Most Middle East production returns within weeks rather than months, but when that production can actually be exported is another question, Kpler said.
Much will depend on how quickly authorities, insurers and shipping companies can coordinate reopening and restarting the movement of goods. The first 10 to 15 days of clearing the tanker backlog can create a noticeable increase in traffic, but it may take longer to return to normal business if insurance premiums remain high, maritime controls are slow or operators remain cautious.
What does reopening mean for oil prices?
Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast after Trump’s agreement announcement, reducing its Brent forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and to $75 for the 2027 average. However, prices may remain under pressure in the near term.
In a June 16 note, Goldman said the “supply recovery could be stronger” and estimated that Gulf flows had already increased to 11 million barrels per day, driven by increases in both the Hormuz flow and diversions.
