Study reveals what Queensland drivers will do if fuel prices continue to increase
As global turmoil caused fuel costs to soar, experts wondered whether Queenslanders would change their travel habits.
They did. But the effects were uneven, the University of Sydney Business School found.
Researchers surveyed 808 Queensland residents, asking how they currently travel and what their weekly plans would be if petrol prices reached $2.50, $3 and $3.50 per litre.
The results pointed to three conclusions: People are driving less, using public transportation more, and cutting out some trips altogether rather than finding a different way to travel.
Chief investigator Dr. Andrea Pellegrini said gasoline is a household expense that people face constantly and directly, meaning price increases are immediate and difficult to ignore.
“Transportation is not a simple household expense,” he said. “It’s what gives people access to jobs, education, healthcare, shopping, family commitments and social activities.”
Pellegrini said public transport, which has a fixed fare of 50 cents in Queensland, was becoming more attractive as fuel prices rose, but many private journeys could not easily be replaced by another form of transport, especially for people living in outer suburban and regional areas.
“It’s rapidly reaching a point where people have to decide what trips they can sacrifice,” he said.
An increase in fuel prices would cause a sharp increase in avoided trips: 90 percent at $2.50 per litre, almost 190 percent at $3 per litre, and over 270 percent at $3.50 per litre.
Currently, people 60 and older are less likely to carpool and bike, and less likely to cancel trips due to higher fuel prices. The study’s authors suspect that these people travel more for essential activities.
Full-time workers currently drive more than others and report using public transportation significantly more and avoiding trips less.
Part-timers consistently prefer public transportation, cycling, and walking, with more flexible travel or more local excursions.
Executives are more likely to use public transportation, taxis, and bicycling but are less likely to avoid trips under hypothetical price scenarios.
Having more bicycles in a household was associated with more walking trips; This may indicate that households with stronger non-car mobility are also more likely to combine cycling with other forms of active travel, the authors said.
Cycling has increased modestly due to rising fuel prices, while walking has remained generally stable.
People who already use public transportation will be less likely to cancel a trip, likely because they already find transportation accessible and convenient, while others will continue to face issues with the frequency, reliability, and accessibility of public transportation, regardless of fuel price.
Low-income families with a weekly household income of less than $999 drive much less to begin with, and people with greater transportation disadvantage are less able to adapt and choose a different way to travel.
Lower-than-expected fuel prices encouraged extra travel more strongly than higher-than-expected prices suppressed it; The authors suggested that many trips are already taking place, limiting people’s ability to cancel, while lower costs could reduce pressure on household budgets and enable more discretionary travel.
At the time of the study, gasoline prices ranged from $2.20 to $2.53 from mid-March through the first week of April. These costs were later softened by the fuel excise tax cut on 1 April.
Electric vehicle sales increased by 50 percent In the month after the start of the war in Iran, Brisbane’s car-dependent suburb of Rochedale had the highest number of EV registrations outside the CBD.
But Pellegrini said the high upfront costs of purchasing an electric vehicle are a significant barrier for households hardest hit by rising fuel costs.
“If people stop traveling because they can no longer afford their usual activities, the problem is not just transportation,” he said. “This is about access, equity and social inclusion. It needs to go beyond simple responses to rising fuel prices telling people to drive less.
“Alternatives also need to be realistic, including reliable public transport, support for flexible working and a fair and affordable transition to electric vehicles.”
In a previous study by the University of Queensland, 10 people were asked to go carless in Brisbane for 20 days. In the end, no one wanted to continue.
Participants struggled to get around by public transport, walking or cycling, and despite saving $300, they said it was very difficult to live in Brisbane without a car.
The federal government has announced that the fuel excise tax cut will be extended for another month after the June 30 deadline, but will be reduced to 16 cents per liter (half the 32 cent cut applied since April).
Fuel prices are well below record levels set in March, when unleaded petrol reached 258.9 cents per liter in Brisbane and diesel rose to 258.9 cents per liter. 327.6¢ per liter on April 10.
Forecasters expected fuel prices to continue falling after the United States and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement, although peace talks remained fragile.
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