There is more at stake with the Gorton and Denton by-election than Starmer’s future – and Labour’s actions prove it
TSir Keir Starmer’s decision to stand in the by-election earlier this week, just days before Gorton and Denton voters go to the polls, underlines just how dire the situation is for Labor.
It is almost unprecedented for a sitting prime minister to visit a by-election district before votes are counted. It’s so unusual that no one remembers when it happened or even if it was the last time.
Prime Ministers normally save such meetings for the next day, if they have the opportunity to go and congratulate a successful candidate who has somehow proven them right.
But these are desperate times for Labor and the Starmer government; We are less than 20 months away from the historic general election victory.
Between growing support for Zack Polanski’s Green Party on the left and the march of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on the right, Labor is now third favourite.
The Prime Minister survived a coup attempt in which Scottish leader Anas Sarwar called for Peter Mandelson to review the implications of his links to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. But finishing third in what is one of Labour’s safest seats could spell the end of a premiership that has been unpopular since day one, full of U-turns and constant struggles to get things right.
History buffs may compare this situation to the Second Battle of El Alamein in 1942; British and Commonwealth forces made a last stand, pushing back Hitler’s panzer divisions in North Africa and with it the fate of the war.
Given the language Labor has used on Reform, describing its politics as “far-right” and “racist”, you can imagine that this is exactly what they had in mind.
But for those interested in recent history, the last-minute deployment of former prime minister Gordon Brown to save the day is all too familiar. His late intervention in 2014 was thought to have saved Alex Salmond’s No campaign against Scottish independence after he led the UK to the brink of partition.
But Starmer’s emergence and Mr Brown’s inauguration are examples of a byelection campaign in which Labor has thrown not just the kitchen sink but every tool it can get its hands on.
Many MPs, ministers and cabinet ministers are mobilizing in the constituency to persuade voters not to give up on Labour.
But we must remember that on 4 July 2024 Labor won more than 50 per cent of the vote in this seat. This is the party’s seventh safest seat; so the fact that the party has had to spend unprecedented levels of campaign resources just to maintain the debate of being potential winners shows how far the party has fallen in the eyes of the public; It’s exactly under 20 percent in the polls.
It took 12 years for the Conservative Party to start losing seats in government in this way.
Ironically, if Labor can pull off the Gorton and Denton miracle, the two people Starmer will have to thank are the two people he has wronged. Deputy leader Lucy Powell, the first person to be sacked from Starmer’s cabinet, led the campaign from the front with almost daily support from Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, whom Starmer personally blocked from running as a candidate.
Instead, he relied on harmless councillor, Angeliki Stogia, to run against the Greens’ more charismatic Hannah Spencer and Reform’s Matthew Goodwin.
The campaign was always overshadowed by the Mandelson scandal and questions over Starmer’s decision to appoint himself ambassador to the US despite knowledge of his nefarious dealings with Epstein.
But ultimately, as Ms. Powell admitted in an interview, IndependentThis contest is a precursor to Labour’s fight until the next general election.
The party will need to take on the Reform push and try to prevent Farage’s party from advancing. But to do so, it will have to rely heavily on tactical voting.
That’s why a Greens victory will be worse for Starmer, and Labor fears it because, according to pollsters and Labor MPs, British politics could see a realignment as voters are allowed to see Zack Polanski’s party as a real alternative to the left.
The various leadership camps behind candidates to replace Starmer don’t think even a disastrous third place finish on Thursday would be bad enough for him to go immediately; no one wants to be running a leadership campaign in the middle of an election campaign for parliaments in Scotland and Wales, and upper and lower councils in England.
However, if the local and delegated elections on May 7 turn into a bloodbath, even victory may not be enough to save him.
Labor’s efforts on this issue, and the Prime Minister’s personal stake in it, underscore that there may not be a more important byelection in British politics for decades.
No one knows who will be the winner on Friday morning, but everything is at stake.
