Wage growth now favors job stayers over job switchers

The wage growth is doing something strange these days.

Typically, fees grow in a faster clip every year for workers who change jobs compared to those who remain in their current roles.

This logical: workers, compared to labor economists, often leave work when they find something better for themselves, which contain a higher salary.

However, in 2025, the roles were reversed as workers facing a sour labor market, and from the jump to “work hugging”-that is, adhering to their current roles.

The annual wage increase called “Business Lifting” reflects the “job changes” revolution for the last six months since February. data Atlanta was watched by Federal Reserve Bank.

The margins are not very large: for example, those who were dismissed in July, according to Atlanta FED data, saw that 4% wages for job -changing workers grew by 4.1%.

However, economists said he pointed out a underlying weakness in the labor market.

Since the end of the 1990s, Atlanta FED data shows have shown that a long-term return in work “vocals” and “permaners” has taken place only in the period around the majority and Dot-Com bust.

According to the data, when a last reversal return occurred, from February 2009 to July 2010, it took place at the Great Stagnation in a 18 -month period and immediately after.

“We tend to see this only when the labor market is weak,” Eric Groshen, the former commissioner of the Office of the US Office from the US Office from 2013 to 2017 from the School of Industry and Labor Relations School of Industry and Labor Relations. He said.

The Atlanta Fed calculates a three -month moving average hourly fee using the data. Current Population SurveyThe US Census Bureau and Working Statistics Bureau was reported.

Groshen shows that total data on the labor market are still “quite strong”.

There were business opening balloon As the US economy pandemi period awakened from its hibernation, until the historical heights in 2021 and 2022. GARD OPPORTUNITY REDED WORKERS Drop your work For new employment, registration numbers regulate large payments from companies that willing to attract capabilities.

Now, in the midst of high interest rates and economic uncertainty, business opening has fallen and employers recruitment For more than a decade, it is at the slowest speed.

“Maybe employers do not feel that they need to offer higher wages to their new workers, and workers have lost some bargaining power in the labor market.” He said.

Facility ratio – the rate of voluntarily abandoning workers – fell sharply. According to the US Department of Labor’s business opening and workers’ turnover survey data, it was around 2% since the beginning of the year. Except for the first days of Covid-19 Pandemi, The levels were not constantly low Since the beginning of 2016.

This is the main reason why the wage growth reflects this for business changes for work changes, which is an economist at the workplace.

A depressive quitting rate shows that the workers did not voluntarily abandon their jobs to find better ones, because they don’t trust doing so, Sh Rivastava said.

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‘Business hug’ replaced the jump of business

Authorized, in this “frozen” labor market, where there is no too much volunteer jump, workers who have to leave unintentionally have to accept a new job that does not pay a new job, he said.

“They’re in a situation where they can get more,” Shrivastava said.

In July, approximately 25% of all unemployed individuals were long -term unemployed. the highest share Since February 2022, the US Office of Statistics according to data.

Economists said that such people are generally not suitable for unemployment benefits.

“They may be willing to get a job for a lower fee than in the beginning.” He said.

In general, the best way for workers to improve their total wages, probably shrivastava by changing jobs.

“But the opportunity to change your business right now is not really there,” he said.

Career experts, job seekers in a challenging recruitment market to prepare themselves for success, he said.

Among them: Find creative network opportunities – conferences, seminars, courses, or book signatures of other participants in your profession. Work seekers can search for an internal work to place a new job that can be easier than looking for something external. When the market rebound is up to a new job, they can focus on uppilling and re -emergence to descend more easily.