Putin likely to stage another Salisbury-style attack, exiled oil tycoon says | Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Exiled Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky says Vladimir Putin will launch another Salisbury-style attack on British soil if the government does not adopt more aggressive tactics against the Kremlin.

The former oil tycoon has emerged as a leading figure in opposition circles in the Russian diaspora and claims to be well informed about current thinking and developments among Moscow’s elite.

Khodorkovsky, who still fears for his life after spending 10 years in a Siberian prison following clashes with Putin, said in a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian that the Trump presidency had provided the Russian leader with a “window of opportunity” to threaten Europe.

Khodorkovsky predicted that Putin was likely to mass troops on the border of a NATO country such as Estonia to “demonstrate his strength” and said he believed Russian security services were planning an attack similar to the 2018 Salisbury Novichok poisonings to destabilize Britain.

“Aim […] It would not only be to get rid of certain people, but also to create a sense of fragility in the West. “Like in Salisbury,” Khodorkovsky said.

“It does not matter whether the victim dies or not, what is important is that the feeling of vulnerability is created.

“People in the Kremlin are not stupid, they are quite creative. They will think of new ways of doing things. What is clear is that there will be some kind of pressure, and this will take a similar form.” [to Salisbury].”

Khodorkvosky added that Putin “chose Britain as his arch-enemy.”

He said the UK government’s best strategy to prevent further incidents like the one in Salisbury might be to strike back against Russian security services.

“If you cast your mind back to the 1950s and ’60s, when there was a lot of this kind of brutal interaction, it dissipated pretty quickly, and that was done just by giving a mirror reaction,” Khodorkvosky said through a translator.

“People working in the intelligence services, like you and me, do not want to die, they left the intelligence agencies and started to run away.

“This was when it was decided that they had to tread lightly, probably using the worst, most brutal methods. I’m not sure whether British society today is ready for that kind of counter-response, counter-attack.”

Khodorkovsky, 62, was Russia’s richest man, with a fortune of $15bn (£11bn) amassed on both sides of the collapse of the Soviet Union, including the Siberian oil company Yukos.

He was arrested in 2003 after challenging Putin by advocating democratic reforms. He was accused of fraud and sentenced to 10 years in prison; It is widely accepted that this punishment was politically motivated. Shares in Yukos were seized and distributed by the Russian government.

Khordorkovsky went into exile in the UK after a decade in prison during which he slashed another prisoner’s face with a makeshift knife.

Speaking at his London offices, he said it was too late for the west to avoid a new cold war with Russia but that governments’ priority should be to avoid escalation into a “hot war”, despite his expectation that Putin would attempt to provoke Britain’s Nato allies.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some troops gathering at the border in the near future. [Nato member] “For example, Estonia,” Khodorkovsky said, and continued: “I do not believe that Putin is actually ready to engage in another military conflict. But it will have an impact.”

“He thinks the window of opportunity is open [Donald] Trump is in power,” Khodorkovsky said, adding that that window could close if Republicans do poorly in the US midterm elections in November and Trump becomes a de facto lame duck president.

Khodorkovsky said Putin’s position has not been significantly weakened by sanctions imposed on oligarchs or specific products or sectors. He added that politicians wanted to “impress their voters” with sanctions on goods and trade, but implementing them in practice was “unrealistic”.

The Guardian recently reported concerns that Irish aluminum and carbon fiber equipment, which could be used to make drones and missiles, could find its way into the Russian military supply chain.

Khodorkovsky said the West’s belief that sanctions against Russian oligarchs would motivate them to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine was based on a “misunderstanding” of the relationship between wealthy businessmen and the Kremlin.

“I have been saying for the last 20 years that there are no oligarchs in Russia,” he said. “How can you reconcile oligarchy with dictatorship? If you have money without weapons, you become someone else’s food.”

But he acknowledged that some oligarchs were “agents of influence” for Russia in the west and that sanctions had weakened their power.

One of the oligarchs Khodorkovsky knows well is former Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich.

The duo planned to create Russia’s largest oil company by merging Yukos with Abramovich’s Sibneft business.

The merger was in progress through a cash and share exchange when Khodorkovsky was arrested and Abramovich backed out of the deal, effectively unraveling it.

In 2005, Abramovich sold his shares in Sibneft to the Kremlin for $13 billion and used some of the proceeds to finance Chelsea FC, which he bought two years earlier.

Khodorkovsky claimed Abramovich’s purchase of Chelsea could not have happened without Putin’s approval, but said this did not mean the Russian president had ordered the takeover.

But Khodorkovsky said he detected Putin’s close interest in the legal dispute between Abramovich and the UK government over how the £2.5 billion proceeds from the forced sale of Chelsea in 2022 should be used. The sticking point is believed to be Westminster’s decision to ensure funds are not diverted to any territory under Russian control.

Khodorkovsky said: “I know, albeit from a single source that I cannot provide, that the presidential administration sees the funds that Abramovich discussed with the UK government as a future source for the reconstruction of both the part of Ukraine under Kiev’s control and the part under Moscow’s control. I personally trust this source. You can say that this is my deep-seated belief.”

Abramovich’s lawyers said no government was involved in the purchase of Chelsea or current attempts to find a solution with the UK government to release charitable funds. Abramovich had previously sued publisher Harper Collins over allegations in the book Putin’s People that the Russian President ordered the purchase of the Premier League football club. This made it clear that the claim was not true.

In October 2025, the Russian government, along with members of the Russian Anti-War Committee, founded in 2022 by exiles and activists, declared Khodorkovsky a “terrorist” and accused them of planning a violent coup.

Khodorkovsky said he tried not to think about the risk it might pose to Putin’s security.

“I spent 10 years in prison,” he said, showing the scar on his face. “They can kill me at any time.

“You have no resources to protect yourself in the UK. So if your intelligence services are doing something I would be grateful.”

He had previously said that the US-Israeli attack on Iran would make Putin stronger in the short term. While Trump loosened sanctions on Russian oil, prices rose and the Kremlin’s fossil fuel revenues increased due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

But Khodorkovsky said Putin had not established a regime that could survive beyond his own death or collapse. “After Putin, the system in Russia will have to be completely destroyed and rebuilt, built from scratch,” he said.

“The range of actual changes, expectations are about five to seven years from now.”

When asked if he could dream of returning to Russia, Khodorkovsky said: “I am 11 years younger than Putin. So I have a chance.”