As Nobel Prize goes to Venezuela’s opposition leader, how far would Trump go to help her?
This Nobel Prize won by Maria Corina Machado was greatly welcomed by the opposition in Venezuela.
Our hope is that this will bring international attention back to their cause.
Responding to the award, Machado asked for help directly from the man who hoped he would win the award.
“Today, we trust President Trump more than ever,” Machado said.
He hopes that with his help, the United States, other nations in Latin America, and “the democratic nations of the world,” Venezuela will “achieve freedom and democracy.”
The question is: How far will Donald Trump go?
There’s a lot at stake in Venezuela right now.
Imagine a country where millions of people live in poverty. Basic services such as electricity are unreliable in many areas. The healthcare system is in crisis due to acute drug shortages. Millions of people have fled in recent years, mostly to the United States or neighboring countries.
The last election was widely rejected internationally as being neither free nor fair. After the vote, security forces intervened in the protests and many people were detained. Human rights organizations believe there are still hundreds of political prisoners.
Recently, the United States began bombing boats in international waters off the country’s coast that it claimed were carrying drug traffickers. Lawyers say the attacks could violate international law.
This is just a snapshot of the situation in and around Venezuela right now. In another world this would be a huge story.
But the opposition, which the United States, among others, say won the last election, is left with little in the way of implementing real change.
Its de facto leader, Machado, is hiding in Venezuela. Opposition candidate Edmundo González, who the United States and others recognize as the president-elect, lives in exile. Both face threats and are accused of “treason” by the government.
Machado briefly participated in a protest ahead of President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration in January, but was arrested and later released.
The frequency of protests, which became widespread after the last election, has decreased due to fear of backlash against demonstrators.
Opposition calls for the military and security forces to abandon President Maduro have so far not led to a significant defection. They and other major militia groups remain loyal to the president.
But there is a question mark over how prepared the opposition’s allies (including the United States) might be to intervene.
In recent weeks, the United States has bombed at least four boats in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea, killing at least 21 people. The US claims these were drug-smuggling ships but did not provide any details about those on board.
Some advocates believe the attacks violate international law, but a recently leaked memo to Congress says the United States now describes itself as being in a “non-international armed conflict”; this suggests that the United States intends to legitimize the use of wartime powers against alleged cartels.
While it is true that cartels such as Tren de Aragua have a presence in the region, some of these ships allegedly come from Venezuela; This is by no means the largest smuggling hub in Latin America.
This led many in the region to suspect that Donald Trump’s real goal in these attacks was to put military pressure on Maduro and remove him from power, along with establishing a US military presence in the region.
The Pentagon is reportedly building a force of thousands of soldiers in the region and planning potential military operations. Special operations forces have been seen on neighboring Caribbean islands such as Trinidad and Tobago.
Grenada’s foreign ministry said it was reviewing a US government request to temporarily install radar equipment and technical personnel at the airport.
Venezuelan defense minister Vladimir Padrino López warned of possible attacks in which the United States would carry out “selective assassinations” with drones or special forces. Gustavo Petro, president of neighboring Colombia, claimed that “a new war scenario has begun” in the Caribbean.
In Venezuela, civilian reserves are preparing for a potential US attack.
U.S. administration officials allege that Maduro is at the top of Venezuela’s cartel network, which Maduro denies; It is therefore believed that the US will claim that removing Maduro from power was ultimately a ‘counter-narcotics’ operation.
In August, the US doubled the reward for any information leading to his arrest to $50 million and accused him of being “one of the world’s biggest drug traffickers”; this was something the government described as “deplorable”.
Venezuela has cooperated with repatriation flights of some immigrants from the United States, but this has not cooled Trump’s anger towards Maduro.
On Friday, the New York Times reported that Venezuelan officials offered the Trump administration a majority stake in Venezuela’s heavily sanctioned oil, gold and mineral resources, but the Trump administration rejected the offer.
The Trump administration may have rejected the Nobel Peace Prize committee and accused it of being “political” for not awarding it to the US president. But for now he remains an ally of the Venezuelan opposition and a fierce rival of Maduro.
The BBC’s US partner CBS News understands Trump called Machado to congratulate him, saying he deserved the award.
It is not yet clear whether the United States will continue its operations by targeting these small ships in the Caribbean Sea or whether it has broader plans to target more senior figures in the Maduro administration.
Venezuela may not have many allies on the world stage, but there are notable exceptions such as China, Russia, Iran and Cuba.
If the US decides to intervene on Venezuelan soil, the situation could escalate very quickly.
