Statistically, there’s a reliable way to predict a domestic violence homicide like Hannah Clarke’s | Queensland

When researchers in Queensland cataloged seven years of data on intimate partner murders, they found something common in more than half of these cases: the victim’s own sense of fear about his or her impending death.

Statistically, the most reliable way to predict a domestic violence homicide is to believe the victim.

Hannah Clarke had the same intuition six weeks before she was murdered.

“I was unhappy and wanted to leave the relationship, but I was afraid of his reaction and what it would mean for our children,” she wrote in her affidavit seeking a domestic violence ruling.

“I believe Rovan has the capacity to kill himself and our children to get revenge on me. This scares me beyond words.”

Kardell Lomas was so afraid of Traven Fisher that she passed a note to support staff asking them to call the police. Fisher sought help from government-funded organizations more than 20 times before killing him.

Gail Karran began documenting her husband Bill’s abuse with a hidden audio recorder. He marked the attacks with an asterisk on his calendar. The night he was fatally attacked, he told police he was scared.

Breaking trust, a two-year investigation by Guardian Australia, has revealed scores of domestic violence murders in which victims’ fears are not taken seriously by police.

“People, especially women, experience domestic and family violence every day, and they seek help every day,” says Emma Buxton-Namisnyk, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales who has studied more than 4,000 domestic and family violence-related deaths.

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“They are not getting the help they want. Instead, they are faced with racist reactions, harmful reactions, and reactions that undermine their own actions.”

Police failures ‘extremely common’

Research in Queensland shows that almost half of women killed by an intimate partner had previously been labeled by police as perpetrators of domestic violence.

New laws were passed in Queensland in September allowing police to issue domestic and family violence protection notices throughout the year; Women’s advocates say this could increase the problem of victims being “misidentified” as criminals.

Police union president Shane Prior wrote to officer members: “Predictably, voices in the DFV sector have lined up against the use of police. [year-long orders] because they think you can’t be trusted to do the job right.” He claimed there was “no hard data” to support his claims that the police had misidentified the victims.

Buxton-Namisnyk says it is “extremely common” to identify problems with police responses when investigating a DFV death.

“I distinctly remember one of my papers on domestic and family violence policing being peer reviewed, and one of the peer reviewers said: ‘Don’t you have anything positive to say? Were there examples of good police behavior before domestic and family violence deaths?’

“And I took a long, hard look at my materials, and honestly, it wasn’t there. It was the same story over and over… It would be harmful for women to call the police and the police not respond… or they would respond and do nothing and leave.”

A 100-day review of the Queensland police service (QPS) recommends that police officers be discouraged from being involved in domestic and family violence matters. Case management – ​​essentially the process of helping to protect women going through the domestic violence decision-making process – is not “essential work”, she says.

“The perceived priority of the QPS in dealing with the socially complex problem of the DFV has increased domestic demand through more specialized training, administrative burden, adaptation mechanisms and specialist functions,” the review said.

“Meanwhile, treating the underlying causes – something that is absolutely beyond the control of the QPS – remains a vexing issue for government and other agencies.”

The same view was echoed by deputy commissioner Cameron Harsley, who told Guardian Australia the QPS takes domestic violence “very seriously”.

But he said: “Even with the perfect police response, you will never stop domestic homicide.”

“Domestic violence and the behavior that we talk about in terms of domestic violence and coercive control is a social problem that requires everyone in society to call out domestic and family violence.”

‘Something more could have been done’

Over the past 10 years Queensland has produced the Not Now, Never report, the Call for Change report and the Hear Your Voice report.

Each of these proposed reforms aimed at policing domestic and family violence. Few of these reforms worked. Women continue to die at record rates.

Many families who spoke to Guardian Australia about the Breaking of Trust have been told by coroners that there is no need for an inquest into their loved ones’ deaths because reforms have been put in place.

Others were told nothing more could be done.

In 2012, former state medical examiner Michael Barnes turned himself in findings About the deaths of Paul Rogers, Tania Simpson, their five-year-old daughter Kyla, and Simpson’s friend Antony Way. Rogers fatally stabbed Simpson and Way after breaking into his estranged partner’s home. He then killed Kyla and himself.

The inquest detailed how a police officer failed to consider the killer’s previous controlling behavior as domestic violence.

“It’s tempting to say nothing can be done,” Barnes said at the time.

“But in my view that’s not good enough. This was not an isolated case. An average of 24 people have died each year in Queensland as a result of domestic and family violence over the last six years. Almost half of the murders committed during this period involved domestic or family violence.

“If we continue to do what we are doing, we have no reason to believe that this terrible toll will diminish. More families will suffer the painful loss of their children, grandchildren, parents and siblings dying at the hands of those who should be their fiercest protectors.”

Cameron Harsley retired from his role as assistant commissioner of the Queensland Police Service in September

In Australia the national domestic violence advice service is on 1800 737 732. In the UK, call the national domestic violence helpline on 0808 2000 247 or visit Women’s Aid. The domestic violence hotline in the US is 1-800-799-SAFE (7233). Other international helplines can be found at www.befrienders.org.

Do you know more? Contact ben.smee@theguardian.com