Fancy thrones, paper tigers and dirty bombs

Donald Trump boasted of victory on Day One of the new Iran War. Jeff McMullen warns that the risks of escalating tensions and consequences are yet to come.

After the first two weeks of joint US-Israeli attacks, President Trump announced Most of Iran’s military capabilities areliterally destroyed”.

Trump boasted He told the White House Press Corps that the United States had struck more than 7,000 military and commercial targets, including 100 Iranian navy ships and 30 Iranian mine-laying ships. He mocked US allies for their reluctance to help open the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, and then mocked his enemy:

“What we’re dealing with now is a paper tiger.”

When asked whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s new leader, the Supreme Leader, is alive or dead, Trump delivered one of his messages. rambling monologues These often contain a Freudian allusion to King Donald sitting on the throne:

Many people say that he is [Mojtaba Khamenei] It is badly damaged. They say he lost his leg, one of his legs, and was very badly injured. Others say he is dead. No one is saying he is 100 percent healthy. He did not speak.

[previous] The Ayatollah would sit and spew hatred from the throne. It’s not as beautiful as a throne. I like the English throne better. But it was a very stylish chair. He would spew hatred from his fancy chair. But you used to see him often, didn’t you?

This one, we’ve never seen it. There may be many reasons for this. We don’t know whether he is dead or not.

Boasting unbridled power, demanding unconditional surrender, and seeking to humiliate his enemies, dead or alive, are characteristic of this American President.

But it would be rash to boast of victory when there are several members of the Trump Administration. stated goals – Ending all nuclear threats, destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, sinking the Iranian Navy, and ensuring popular uprising after regime change – has clearly not been achieved.

It is almost certain that there will be more conflict and many more deaths. Escalation often results in more civilian casualties.

movement 2,500 US Marines Establishing a rapid deployment force to assemble an estimated 50,000 U.S. troops at regional bases or on U.S. ships near the war zone is indicative of possible future escalation.

With two aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Ford, each escorted by three destroyers and a variety of aircraft including F-35s, F-22s, F-15s and F-16s, we see a task force capable of continuing to strike Iranian military positions around the Strait of Hormuz.

after hitting military targets On Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil processing and storage center, there is further speculation about a US attempt to gain control of this strategic location.

Another possibility widely discussed among defense analysts in Washington, D.C., is that the United States and/or Israel special forces He might dare to go after Iran’s secret stash of enriched uranium (the making of future nuclear weapons).

Any of these escalatory actions carry enormous risk.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated Before raids on Iran’s three nuclear facilities last year, these warehouses contained 440.9 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium and almost 200 kilograms of 20% fissile material that could be converted to almost 90% weapons-grade uranium.

During the current war in Iran, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says The Iranians have no evidence of transporting enriched uranium. He believes most of the 18 to 20 boxes are kept in the underground tunnel complex in Isfahan and more in Natanz.

We should not underestimate the long-term danger posed by this fissile material.

If Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and heading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he will have enough motivation to take revenge. The war claimed the life of not only his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but also many close family members.

As long as this Iranian regime retains its cache of highly enriched uranium, the risk of a more desperate nuclear program, or even the purchase of a weapon or two from an ally or an asymmetric attack using so-called weapons, will increase. dirty bomb.

War actors at King’s College London ruled out the possibility that Iran could hide a dirty bomb somewhere, such as on a cargo ship arriving in New York harbour. Many see this as a simple thing “strategic suicideBecause the USA or Israel will respond to such an attack by creating a nuclear hell for Iran.

But before this war is over, with a negotiated solution involving renewed IAEA inspections or the removal of remaining fissile nuclear material, such an Iranian threat remains in this tragic cycle of war and revenge.

We must accept the possibility that the US and Israel’s goals in the Iran War, and therefore their perspectives on success or failure, may not be exactly the same.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel at the time of the war, is still on trial. He faces bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges in three cases that allege he accepted illegal gifts and granted political favors in exchange for glowing media coverage of his leadership.

Trump defended Netanyahu and lobbied for a pardon. How ironic that Israeli President Herzog turned down these requests, saying that Israel’s affairs would not be decided by Washington.

This is the war Bebe Netanyahu always wanted, the war he talks about in his book 2022 memory.

To defeat the Islamist regime bent on destroying Israel and strengthening its own leadership, Netanyahu was determined to decapitate Iran’s top political and military leaders.

From the beginning, he too spoke of regime change and repeatedly called on the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Ayatollahs. Two weeks after the shooting, he admitted: I’m not sure at all that the people will be able to overthrow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Netanyahu now argues that crippling Iran’s ability to wage war – which includes greatly weakening Hezbollah forces in Lebanon – is his primary goal.

The immediate task for the United States at this hour is to clear the Strait of Hormuz of any threat to approximately 20% of the world’s oil supplies.

by him own admissionPresident Trump was surprised and did not foresee Iran’s strategy to retaliate against the United States and Israel by attacking the Gulf countries. He was so caught up in his belief in the use of overwhelming American power that he Reuters sourcesHe ignored the warnings of his strategic advisors.

Similarly, Trump is now mocking Iran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and cut off vital oil supplies to many countries. He underestimated the ability of a beleaguered regime to implement the mix of economic and psychological warfare that has caused worldwide concern. The full extent of the damage to the global economy, including the threat of recession in Australia, is not yet known, given the possibility of a longer war.

For nearly half a century, Western defense planners have predicted that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. Iran itself had given this clear warning, and this was a very good reason why previous US leaders had avoided war against Iran.

Now Trump is learning that war often leads to shocking, unintended consequences. The ending is unclear.

We should all watch out for paper tigers.

This story was first published in a slightly different form in the Independent Australia members’ only weekly newsletter dated 18 March 2026.

Journalist, author and filmmaker Dr. Jeff McMullen AM is patron of the Australian Indigenous Doctors Association (AIDA) and First Peoples Network on Disability (FPDN), both officially supporting the “Yes” campaign. He is an ambassador NOFASD Australia.