Saudi Aramco CEO warns of Iran war fall out on earnings call
The logo of Saudi state oil giant Aramco.
Fayez Nureldine | AFP | Getty Images
The CEO of Saudi oil giant Aramco has warned that the Iran war threatens “catastrophic consequences” for the global oil market.
Amin Nasser said Tuesday that the war had caused a “violent chain reaction” and a “serious domino effect” beyond shipping “on aviation, agriculture, automotive and other industries.”
“It will have devastating consequences for the world oil market. The longer the disruption lasts, the harsher the consequences for the global economy,” he said, adding that it was “by far the biggest crisis” facing the region’s oil and gas industry.
Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery was hit by a shell last week during Iran’s widespread drone and missile attacks on Gulf states in response to attacks by the United States and Israel.
Oil prices rose on supply fears but fell after US President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran “twenty times harder” if it tried to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking after Saudi Aramco’s full-year 2025 earnings were announced with a figure that exceeded analysts’ estimates, Nasser warned: “With the current geopolitical crisis, global stocks, which are currently at a five-year low, will decline more rapidly.
“Global spare capacity is mostly concentrated in this region, so the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is absolutely critical.”
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman told CNBC on Monday that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz “must be very careful.”
“As long as the situation is unsafe, I think all tankers and all shipping should be very careful,” said Esmail Baghaei, who is also president of the Center for Public Diplomacy.
Aramco’s full year profit
The Saudi state oil giant reported adjusted net income of $104.7 billion for the full year, describing it as “strong growth” despite a year of oil price fluctuations.
Adjusted profit for the fourth quarter came in at $25.1 billion, slightly above the $24.8 billion average forecast compiled by the company.
Free cash flow for the year reached $85.4 billion.
The company also announced a core dividend of $21.89 billion for the fourth quarter, up 3.5% from the previous year, to be paid in the first quarter of 2026. The company remains one of the world’s largest dividend payers and a major source of income for the Saudi state.
Total shareholder distributions for the year reached $85.5 billion, as the company continued to prioritize payments despite falling crude oil prices in 2025.
Aramco also announced a share buyback program worth up to $3 billion over 18 months.
Aramco’s shares have risen sharply in recent sessions as oil prices rose on fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Cash flow
Aramco generated $136.2 billion in operating cash flow last year, driven by stable production and strong subsector results. Capital investments reached $52.2 billion, in line with the company’s expectations and slightly below 2024 levels.
“Our disciplined capital allocation, combined with low-cost and highly reliable operations, led to strong financial performance in a year marked by price volatility,” Nasser said in the earnings release.
Crude oil prices fell from $80.2 per barrel in 2024 to $69.2 per barrel in 2025; This reflects a softer oil market and increasing global supply. However, as the war in the Middle East escalated in recent days, crude oil rose to approximately $120 per barrel.
