Oil supply crunch will worsen in April, IEA warns
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol holds a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2026.
Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images
According to the head of the International Energy Agency, next month will see an intensification of the oil oversupply that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war.
Speaking to the “In Good Company” podcast hosted by Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen, Birol said that the energy crisis caused by the US-Iran war is the worst crisis in history.
“Next month, April, will be much worse than March,” he said. He announced that in March, before the war started, some cargo ships carrying oil and gas had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
“They’re still coming to the ports, they’re still bringing oil, energy and other [things]“There is nothing in April,” he said. The oil loss in April will be twice the oil loss in March. Moreover, there is LNG and others. I think it will lead to inflation and cut economic growth in many countries, especially in developing economies. “Energy rationing may be coming soon in many countries.”
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that American forces would leave Iran “within two or three weeks,” sparking a broad relief rally in financial markets.
But Birol said the war, now in its fifth week, had created a deeper oversupply than those seen in previous crises such as those in the 1970s and following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“When you look [1973 and 1979]We lost approximately 5 million barrels of oil per day in both. These oil crises led to a global recession in many countries,” he told Tangen. “Today, we lost 12 million barrels a day; more than two of these oil crises combined.”
He added that the gas resources lost due to conflicts and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, exceeded the amount lost to the market when Russia’s gas flow was disrupted four years ago.
“The current crisis is more than the sum of these three. Additionally, there are many vital commodities such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and these are very important for global supply chains,” he said. “It’s big, it’s huge, and we’re heading for the biggest in history.”
IEA considers further reserve release
Birol also said the IEA was considering re-releasing strategic oil reserves as the conflict in the Middle East continues.
“We evaluate the market 24/7, not hourly but daily. If we think there is a need, we can make suggestions.” [to release more reserves]”The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel; these are the main challenges and we are already seeing this in Asia, but it will come to Europe soon, in April or maybe early May,” Birol said.
Earlier this month, the IEA’s 32 member countries It agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks to offset some of the supply disruptions resulting from the Iran war.
“When the time comes, I will decide to make a proposal to governments,” Birol said in Thursday’s podcast episode, but he also noted that releasing another pile of reserves would not end the problem in energy markets.
“This just helps reduce the pain, it won’t be a cure,” he explained. “The solution is to open the Strait of Hormuz. We are buying some time, but I do not claim that this, our stock announcement, will be the solution.”
Oil prices have risen sharply since the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on February 28, prompting retaliatory strikes from Tehran across the Gulf. Global benchmark through March Brent crude oil Oil rose more than 60%, marking the biggest monthly price increase since records began in the 1980s.
In recent weeks, the IEA announced a list of recommendations to help soften the impact of the global energy crisis. These included lowering speed limits for vehicles, working from home and reducing the use of gas-powered ovens.
