Iran regime collapse: Who would succeed Khamenei if Republic falls

As anti-regime protests continue to spread across Iran and questions swirl about the durability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a fundamental question emerges: Who will actually take power if the Islamic Republic collapses?

The answer is far from clear, according to regional experts and Iranian opposition figures. This may depend less on ideology and more on how the regime falls and whether Iran’s security forces crumble or hold on.

Collapse is as important as succession

The critical variable is not just whether the regime will collapse, but how it will happen, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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“Despite being the religious leader, one has to wonder how directly Khamenei manages the country’s affairs, especially after the war and with limited public participation,” Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. he said. He warned Western governments against supporting a cosmetic transition that would only lead to the displacement of elites.

“What I fear is that the West will be tempted by a Maduro-type or an Egyptian-type model,” he said, referring to scenarios in which established security forces retain power under new leadership. “This will just be stealing chairs at the top and will not provide the Iranian people with a path to meaningful change.”

Ben Taleblu argued that the Iranian opposition faces a logistical rather than ideological challenge: turning sustained street protests into organized political force before security forces regain control.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) special forces march on the US flag during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Quds Day, in Tehran, Iran, on March 28, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The decisive role of security forces

Many experts agree that Iran’s future depends on whether the regime’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia and the regular army, remains intact.

Ben Taleblu said the key factor was that parts of the security forces defected, refused orders or disintegrated. “What has to be chipped away is the regime’s coercive power,” he said, adding that a transition would require sustained protests, economic strikes and cracks within security units.

Without this, analysts warn, Iran could face a scenario in which the clergy would disappear but real power would remain in the hands of the armed institutions.

“This is the fear,” Ben Taleblu said. “If the state steals chairs, the streets will not be satisfied with it. This means a bumpier road ahead.”

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Members of the Basij paramilitary force carry the Iranian flag, the Lebanese flag, the Hashd al-Shaabi flag, the flag of the Quds force Fatimiyoun Brigade and the Lebanese Hezbollah flag during the commemoration of International Quds Day, also known as Quds Day, in downtown Tehran on April 14, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Can the military take over?

Some analysts point to historical examples where the military intervened amid unrest in Egypt. Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a military-led transition could not be ruled out but would be concerning.

Speaking to Fox News Digital, Sabti emphasized that Iran’s military institutions are not monolithic, saying, “IRGC generals could theoretically attempt a coup.” He distinguished between the Revolutionary Guard, which he described as an ideological and asymmetrical force, and the regular army, which he said was more professional and nationally focused.

Sabti singled out former armed forces commander Habibullah Sayyari as an example of a figure who brought limited criticism from within the system. Still, he warned that criticism alone cannot make a leader, and said charisma is deeply important in Iranian politics.

Protests in Iran are intensifying on the 12th day. (National Council of Resistance of Iran)

“He has a charisma problem,” Sabti said. “This is very important in Iran.”

Political prisoners and internal leaders

Despite international attention on jailed activists, experts are skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership will emerge from within the country’s prison system.

Ben Taleblu said decades of oppression have made it nearly impossible to develop political leadership in Iran. “What will emerge from within are the forces of the revolution,” he said. “Political leadership needs to be built externally.”

Sabti echoed that view, saying released prisoners would likely become part of a broader system rather than dominant leaders.

“There will be no leaders coming out of prison,” he said. “They will be part of the new system, but they will not be charismatic leaders.”

Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi holds a press conference in Paris on June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)

Opposition in exile and the Pahlavi issue

Reza Pahlavi’s supporters say he has emerged as the focal point of opposition mobilization amid growing unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi called on Iranians to chant in their homes or on the streets at 8 p.m., and his aides said large crowds reacted in many cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.

Those close to Pahlavi describe him as advocating a secular, democratic Iran committed to human rights, but rejecting allegations that he is trying to restore the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said that the shape of Iran’s future system should be decided by the people through a free constitutional process.

“My task is not to tip the scales in favor of the monarchy or the republic,” Pahlavi said. “I will remain completely neutral in the process to ensure that Iranians finally have the right to free choice.”

Banafsheh Zand, Iranian American journalist and editor of Substack “Iran is Far Away,” told Fox News Digital that Pahlavi is the only viable unifying figure who can guide a transition; this view is strongly opposed by others in the diaspora.

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Zand said, “The only person who can make this happen is the crown prince,” and argued that any prominent figure within Iran would be quickly eliminated by the regime. He rejected alternative opposition figures as lacking legitimacy within the country.

Zand said chants supporting Pahlavi during recent protests reflected real sentiment, not fabrication, but said such claims were difficult to independently verify due to internet blackouts and government censorship.

Some experts warn that although Pahlavi has visibility in the West and among some segments of the Iranian public, he remains a polarizing figure, especially among Iranians wary of the monarchy or outside influences.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Maryam Rajav at Ashraf-3 in Albania on May 16, 2022. (NCRI)

Rajavi and organized opposition groups

Another long-standing opposition movement, the Mujahedin Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has received support from some senior US political figures. from across the hall over the years, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani.

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Rajavi stated that change “will not come from outside Iran or be achieved by the will of foreign capitals” and argued that only an organized, nationwide resistance can overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Rajavi pointed out that the People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran and its “Resistance Units” were the main force behind the recent uprisings, claiming that they played a decisive role in organizing the protests and confronting the security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. He said Iran’s National Council of Resistance did not seek power for itself, but instead proposed a six-month interim period culminating in free elections for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic after the regime’s overthrow.

NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi stands with former Vice President Mike Pence. (NCRI)

“Once established, all power will be transferred to the Parliament, which will both elect the interim government and prepare the constitution of the new republic,” Rajavi said. he said. “Gender equality in all its aspects, separation of church and state, autonomy of Iranian Kurdistan and many other pressing issues have been approved in detail by NCRI.”

Rajavi also spoke of what he called broad international support. NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital dispute the group’s level of support in Iran. Sabti said the MEK’s history of violence and hardline ideology in the 1980s alienated young Iranians.

Speaking at an NCRI conference in Washington, DC, last November, Pompeo defied critics, saying: “A thriving, democratic, popular government in Iran; not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not an oppressive regime. That will be a great thing for the whole world. We are waiting for that day, and it will be a blessing for all of us.”

Ben Taleblu also warned against Western governments “playing favorites” among exiled groups, saying legitimacy must ultimately come from within Iran.

In this screenshot from a social media video posted on January 9, 2026, protesters gather as vehicles burn amidst anti-government unrest developing in Tehran, Iran. (via Social Media/Reuters)

There is no clear successor and we have a long road ahead

Despite intense speculation, experts agreed on one point: There is no clear successor waiting in the wings.

“We are not there yet,” Sabti said, noting that Khamenei is alive and the security forces have not dispersed.

Ben Taleblu described this moment as a marathon, not a sprint, and warned against simplistic narratives about the collapse of the regime.

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“This is about creating the best bridgehead for the post-Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, “so that the revolutionary forces within can finally become voters and determine their own destiny.”