Taiwan unveils $40 billion defense plan amid China military pressure

KAOHSIUNG: Last week, Taiwan President William Lai announced a massive $40 billion additional defense procurement proposal, citing it as evidence that the independently governed democratic island is serious about countering the growing military pressure of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The PRC has never ruled Taiwan for a day but claims it as its own territory.

A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital: “We welcome Taiwan’s announcement of a new $40 billion special defense acquisition budget. Consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act and the more than 45-year commitment of many U.S. Administrations, the United States supports Taiwan’s acquisition of critical defense capabilities commensurate with the threat it faces.”

The spokesman also praised Taipei: “We also welcome the Lai administration’s recent commitments to increase defense spending to at least 3% of GDP by 2026 and 5% of GDP by 2030, demonstrating Taiwan’s determination to strengthen its self-defense capabilities.”

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The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) – the de facto American embassy – responded very positively immediately after Lai’s offer was announced. Taipei Times political columnist Courtney Donovan Smith told Fox News Digital that the strong support from AIT “means a clear stamp of approval from the American public.”

A day after Lai’s statement, Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo told the media that preliminary discussions had already been held with the United States about the types of weapons it wanted to purchase as part of this budget, which would run from 2026 to 2033. But Koo said he could not publicly disclose any details of the discussions until Congress receives official notification.

But some in Taiwan have expressed concern that the administration’s language is a bit over-the-top and does not come from enough senior officials.

Those concerned about what they perceived as the quiet tone of the Trump administration wondered whether the timing would be sensitive, shortly after President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a trade deal and just days after Xi called Trump to reiterate Beijing’s claims on Taiwan, claiming the United States had “agreed” but not conceded.

Even so, Ross Feingold, a Taipei-based political risk analyst and Tamkang University assistant professor, told Fox News Digital that U.S. support is fundamentally unchanged and that “if Taiwan is a willing buyer, the Trump administration is likely to be a willing seller” when it comes to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

A screenshot from a video shows the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launching large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with Chinese navy ships and military aircraft on May 24, 2024. (Feng Hao / PLA / Chinese Military/Anatolia via Getty Images)

Conservative Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister in October, is also troubling the fragile egos of China’s communist leaders. He appeared to break Japan’s long-standing strategic uncertainty over Taiwan when he was asked in parliament on November 7 whether a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be considered “a situation that threatens the existence of Japan.”

Takaichi didn’t change the subject, saying, “I don’t comment on assumptions.” Instead, he said: “If there are warships and the use of force, whatever you think about it, that could pose a survival-threatening situation.”

Under Japan’s 2015 security law, the designation could allow the Japanese to take military action to defend an ally.

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A Taiwanese soldier uses powerful binoculars to monitor the Taiwan Strait along the narrow strip of sea separating China from Taiwan. This is Taiwan’s closest point to China, and despite the easing of relations between the two foes, the area remains heavily guarded. (Alberto Buzzola/LightRocket via Getty Images)

China reacted predictably harshly, immediately calling his remarks “terrible.” A Chinese diplomat in Osaka escalated further, reposting his story about X with a threat-like warning: “The dirty head who got himself in needs to be cut off.”

Kerry K. Gershaneck, a visiting scholar at National Chengchi University and a former U.S. Navy counterintelligence officer, told Fox News Digital that the United States should publicly condemn China for threats to Japan and the Japanese prime minister. Gershaneck said Asian allies are calling for the Obama administration’s “Don’t provoke China!” He warned that they were remembering the past abandonment of the United States within the scope of its policy. “Unless senior Washington officials signal stronger support, the Trump ’47 administration risks going down in history as Barack Hussein Obama’s third term,” he said.

Feingold noted that Takaichi’s stance was greeted with enthusiasm in Taiwan, but that the excitement “was unsustainable and not based on a formal policy decision by Japan to defend Taiwan.”

Following reports that President Trump had called Japan’s prime minister and demanded he tone down talk about Taiwan, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Minoru issued a strong denial, saying Trump did not advise Takaichi to “tone down his comments on Taiwan.”

President Donald Trump, along with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, speaks with military members aboard the USS George Washington, an aircraft carrier docked at the American naval base in Yokosuka, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)

While geopolitical changes make headlines, Lai’s real problem is domestic. Taiwan has a unicameral legislature and Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party does not have a majority.

Cheng Li-wun, the new chief of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), campaigned against increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP and repeatedly argued that Taiwan was “not an ATM” for “unreasonable” military budgets. The KMT supports renewed relations with Beijing and the adoption of the “1992 Consensus”, the proposed framework that would allow each side to claim “one China” with different interpretations of the meaning. Lai completely rejects this position, characterizing it as a path to subordination to China.

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Soldiers pose for a group photo with the Taiwanese flag after a readiness development exercise simulating defense against Beijing’s military interventions ahead of the Lunar New Year in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, January 11, 2023. (Daniel Ceng/AP Photo)

Bryce Barros, a GLOBSEC associate member and former U.S. Senate national security adviser, told Fox News Digital that there are serious obstacles. “Opposition leaders have cited cuts to other essential services such as healthcare, lack of details on how the budget will be paid, and concerns about further hostilities with China,” he said. But Barros noted that the de facto American embassy head had called for bipartisan support for the bill, and that Lai needed only six opposition dissenters to pass the vote.

Analysts also emphasize that the offer is not only aimed at US weapons. Lai wants major investment in domestic defense manufacturing, including a “dome” missile defense system that could blunt accusations of overspending to curry favor with Washington. But the plan still faces an unstable parliament and certain retaliation from China.