The more generous U.S. ceasefire terms are, the more suspicious Iran becomes they’re a ruse for another attack, expert says

The Iranian regime may be wondering whether a new agreement to extend the ceasefire with the United States is too good to be true.

While negotiations continue with important details still to be worked out, the main points of the agreement include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing ships to pass without paying tolls. Sources told Axios. In return, the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease some of the sanctions, allowing Tehran to sell oil openly.

However, the most controversial issues must be resolved within the 60-day negotiation period. This includes Iran’s uranium, as well as the US permanently ending sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets abroad (estimated at $25 billion).

The United States will also maintain its military presence in the region and will only withdraw once a final agreement is reached, Axios said. But Trump will still give up significant influence.

“One of the problems with this approach and deciding to deal with the nuclear issue later is that waiving sanctions on Iran’s oil exports now will reduce, rather than increase, Iran’s motivation to reach a nuclear deal,” said Eric Brewer, former director of nonproliferation at the National Security Council. said in x. “Moreover, by tying these sanctions to the Bosphorus, you have lost the ability to reimpose them without a major risk of Iran regaining control of the waterway.”

News that the USA and Iran are close to extending the ceasefire Shocked some RepublicansThose who fear that Trump is ready to give away too much.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that effectively recognized Tehran’s ability to control the strait, saying it would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and eventually become a “nightmare” for Israel.

Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said a 60-day extension would be disastrous and “everything achieved by Operation Epic Fury would be in vain.” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also piled on.

“If the result of all this is an Iranian regime led by Islamists who still chant ‘Death to America’, receives billions of dollars, can enrich uranium, develop nuclear weapons and has effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.” Published on X.

Despite US-Israeli bombardment that has devastated Iran’s military and economy, Tehran has retained sufficient combat power to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed using missiles, drones and fast attack boats.

Trump, meanwhile, has signaled his reluctance to resume attacks and break the ceasefire, while abandoning an effort to revive Hormuz traffic by using Navy warships to protect tankers.

While Iran is holding the global economy hostage and oil markets are set to fall off a cliff within weeks, it has refused to meet most of their demands.

But even the regime is not sure whether it can believe the US offer. This is similar to previous rounds of talks earlier this year and last year, when the talks ended with the US dropping bombs on Iran.

Vali Nasr, a former senior advisor at the State Department, said: “The agreement in play looks like a victory for Iran. But Tehran is not convinced that this is not a war rehearsal to be held now or in 30 days.” Published on X. “In fact, the more generous the terms are for Iran, the greater the suspicion that the United States is not serious about peace and wants to distract Iran before another attack.”

As a result, he added, Tehran will focus on evidence that the US military will back down, and that relying on the US will be a “gamble” that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will eventually decide on.

This was noted in the report of the Institute for the Study of War on Saturday. It is stated that the Iranian regime believes that it is negotiating from a strong position “due to its victory in the war.”

Meanwhile, one of Iran’s primary goals in the negotiations is to secure its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ISW added.

At the same time, the US naval blockade does not weaken Iran’s dominance because ships that have not entered or exited Iranian ports are still free to pass, even if they have accepted the conditions imposed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The world cannot wait any longer for the strait to normalize, but extending negotiations would help normalize Iran’s de facto control. ISW stated in a separate report.

“The Iranians are probably aware of this fact, and this is one of the reasons why they are delaying and delaying the negotiation process,” the statement said. “The United States and the world must not allow Iran to impose a new reality on this critical international waterway. If negotiations do not quickly lead to an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous internationally agreed transit plan, then resort to force will unfortunately be necessary.”

This story first appeared on: Fortune.com