Australia’s migration numbers defy both camps

Analysts expect new ABS data to show net migration holding steady at around 315,000, challenging claims of both recovery and collapse. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

After much embarrassment over claims that net migration would be over 450,000 in 2024-25 and 550,000 in 2025, anti-immigration advocates continue to search for evidence that net migration is accelerating, while pro-immigration advocates argue it is also increasing. I’m still diving. There’s a good chance they’re both wrong.

Net migration has undoubtedly fallen significantly since the surge in 2022-23, when it rose to well over 500,000. In the 12 months to March 2025, the number was 315,000. Anti-immigration advocates continue to argue that the increase in Net Permanent and Long-Term (NPLT) movements in 2025, together with estimates of net migration data from the National Accounts, confirms a sharp recovery of net migration.

(Data source: ABSs)

On 18 December 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish preliminary estimates of net migration for the June quarter 2025, as well as revisions to previous quarters. This will provide net migration for the entire year 2024-25.

While NPLT data for the June quarter 2025 shows that net migration in the June quarter 2025 may be higher than 55,327 for the June quarter 2024, other data suggests this may not be the case.

Three things will happen in the June quarter of 2025:

Increase in permanent resident visas, including those issued to those entering Australia temporarily to meet the Permanent Migration Program planning level.

As students complete their first semester, there is an increase in both short- and long-term departures. Short-term departures will not reduce net migration as they usually return before the start of the second term.

Reduced stock of temporary entrants to Australia.

The decline in the stock of temporary entrants in the June quarter was largely driven by a decline in visitor, student and holiday work visa holders. The decline in the number of working holidaymakers may have contributed to the increase in net migration outflows, but the decline in the number of visitors and students may not have significantly affected net migration.

There was also a drop around:

There are 10,000 bridging visa holders, but this may largely be temporary entrants on permanent visas; And

7,000 other temporary entrants (employment) with the possibility of switching to other temporary visas.

There were increases in stocks:

New Zealand citizens (around 16,000);

Provisional graduates (up to approximately 7,000); And

Qualified Temporary participants (up to approximately 15,000). This may have happened despite the fact that a significant number of these individuals were permanent residents.

The combined impact of these changes on net migration is difficult to estimate, but net migration in the June quarter 2025 is unlikely to be as high as the NPLT of 91,660. This may be higher than the net migration result for the June quarter 2024 (55,327), but may not be significantly higher.

If this is the case, net migration for 2024-25 could be around 315,000 (perhaps slightly higher or lower). This means that net migration is neither “accelerating sharply” nor “falling” in the June quarter of 2025.

We’ll find out on December 18.

Dr Abul Rizvi Independent Australian columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Immigration Service. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

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