The patience and the poker face: Iran’s wily diplomat set to face the US in nuclear talks | Iran
If the United States and Iran want to avoid a regional war, both sides need to start making concessions at talks in Geneva on Tuesday and also adapt to each other’s very different bargaining styles.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister who has been involved in Iran’s nuclear negotiations for almost 15 years, is a nearly lifelong diplomat who has written a book on the art of negotiation that reveals the secrets of Iran’s diplomatic trade – tricks, patience and poker faces.
He holds a bachelor’s degree from the Iranian School of International Relations, a master’s degree in political science from Islamic Azad University, and a doctorate in political thought from the University of Kent in the United Kingdom.
Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, studied law at Hofstra, a university on Long Island near New York, before making his fortune in real estate development.
While Araghchi, far more of a consensus figure in Iranian politics than his famous predecessor Javad Zarif, has mapped out the parameters of what Iran can offer in endless consultations across the government spectrum, including with supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Witkoff is working on a shifting brief devised by one man.
Trump sees diplomacy as an offshoot of pro-wrestling. Iran’s foreign ministry sees this as a branch of chess, almost an art form.
In fact, for those in the United States who claim that Iran likes to play for time and turn the negotiation around, Araghchi’s The Power of Negotiation provides some support.
“The fundamental principle of bargaining is practice: repetition, repetition, and repetition combined with determination and persistence. Insisting on positions and repeating demands is a must, each time with different rhetoric and reasoning,” he writes.
Born into a family of merchants (his grandfather was a carpet merchant), he argues that Iran’s diplomacy reflects the country’s markets.
“The Iranian negotiating style is generally known in the world as the ‘market style’, which means constant and tireless bargaining. It requires a lot of time and energy, and those who get tired and bored easily lose.”
More theoretically, in a book he wrote while out of office in 2014, he argues that once a negotiator enters the room, their real power depends on the level of national cohesion in the country and the country’s military strength.
He argues that if there is not at least a balance of power with your enemy, it is best to refuse talks until the balance is achieved; Like Iran did after bombing its nuclear facilities in June last year.
But Iran’s tendency to say “Yes, but” may go too far. Araghchi famously reduced his US counterpart, Wendy Sherman, to tears of frustration, something he regretted.
Araghchi, who held six rounds of two-stage direct and indirect meetings with Witkoff, also explains how vital it is to remain transparent.
“The face of a skilled diplomat is inscrutable and it is impossible to capture any emotion from it. Being able to control the expression of emotions on the face is not easy and requires constant study and practice.”
He argues that providing your enemy with a graceful exit is an integral part of diplomacy, describing it as providing the “Golden Bridge,” a term he borrowed from China (Araghchi served as ambassador to Japan for four years).
This suggests that Araghchi will not be triumphant if Trump agrees to a version of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from which he withdrew in 2018. “Diplomacy is not a game you must win, it is a process in which you must understand the other side,” he writes.
Araghchi, who is married twice and has five children, is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and, unlike his predecessor Zarif, maintains close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He criticized the power of elite forces.
“Araghchi is much more technocratic and more careful about walking the tightrope required to survive,” said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Zarif was more political and outspoken and willing to test the boundaries of what was digestible for the regime.”
Indeed, some thought Araghchi had been brought into the nuclear talks with Washington by Iranian hardliners to act as a check and balance on Zarif.
Geranmayeh expects the United States to make clear demands that Iran dilute or remove its highly enriched uranium stockpile; But such an irreversible step by Iran would require the United States to take parallel irreversible steps, such as the release of most of Iran’s large assets frozen abroad.
There is scope for compromise on enrichment on the basis that the bombing of nuclear facilities will make enrichment impossible for 3 to 5 years. But this would require the UN nuclear inspectorate, the IAEA, to return so it could visit the bombed sites; This issue was likely at the center of talks between Araghchi and IAEA director general Rafael Grossi on Monday.
Apart from the nuclear aspects of the agreement, Geranmayeh says: “In this pro-Trump world, do not expect every agreement to be written on paper. There may be a number of unverifiable agreements, including a non-aggression pact between Iran and the United States and its allies.”
Ali Ansari, professor of modern history at the University of St Andrews, said Iran “may make concessions to continue the discussions, but Trump is in no rush right now anyway.”
Bringing US oil companies into the country – an economic concession that has been granted so far – would be a significant change in Iran’s anti-US revolutionary doctrine.
Either way, Araghchi knows he will face criticism from within the country regardless of the outcome.
Araghchi recalled meeting Zarif in the elevator of Hassan Rouhani’s residence after Zarif’s presidential election victory in 2013. At that time, Zarif had not yet accepted Rouhani’s offer to become foreign minister. Araghchi asked him why. Zarif gave the following answer: ‘In the end, we will fall short and we will be victimized.
