The shutdown meant no jobs report. Carlyle’s analysis shows it would have been pretty bad

Job growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that attempts to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.

The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 for the month, less than the 22,000 gains in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

With the BLS shuttered and data releases suspended until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to offer alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is headed.

Carlyle’s data falters a bit, with other versions showing little hiring growth.

Last week, payroll processing firm ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, but that included a reduction due to adjustments to BLS revisions.

Overplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs eased in September, planned hiring for firms reached its lowest level since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis.

To be sure, Carlyle’s data showed anemic payroll gains, while other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.

Underlying gross domestic product growth paced 2.7% annually in September, the firm said, while business investment paced an average annual rate of 4.8% annually. Carlyle also reported that energy consumer prices fell 3.8%, while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.

Carlyle said it derives its data from its “vast global portfolio” that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.

Although the firm is seeing weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker showed 80,000 positions gained in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years.

A New York Fed survey released Monday showed concern about the state of the labor market.

The central bank’s monthly survey of consumer expectations for September showed that the share of those expecting the unemployment rate to be higher than a year ago rose 2 points from the previous month to 41.1%. Additionally, the probability of a person losing their job next year increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.9%.

However, the likelihood of finding a job within three months of losing one’s current position increased to 47.4%, up from a series of 44.9% in August.