This feels like the warmest winter in Brisbane in years. But is it?
It’s pretty warm this winter, if you believe your own senses when you step out the front door.
After some initial wet weather, Brisbane lives up to its reputation for sunny winter days that require little more than a light jumper.
When you look at the minimum night temperatures, the city is experiencing the warmest beginning of winter in the last 10 years.
“We’ve been deprived of some really cold weather,” said Angus Hines, senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.
However, State of Origin fans shouldn’t be fooled by the relatively warmer temperatures.
The thermostat is set at 16 degrees at kickoff for Wednesday night’s series decider and could drop to 14 degrees by halftime.
It may be even colder inside Suncorp due to the stadium’s open roof; Claret red scarves, beanies and sweaters are appropriate attire for fans at the match.
June recorded only one cold spell on the 18th and 19th, when Brisbane usually received three or four.
Hines said a large, persistent high pressure system centered in Tasmania was holding off bursts of cold air reaching Queensland.
“We typically experience periodic bursts of cold air from the Southern Ocean during the winter months,” he said.
“But due to major high pressure in the southeast of the country, the gateway to the Southern Ocean was forcibly closed.
“None of these cold fronts will cross Australia, let alone Queensland.”
Temperatures in Brisbane dropped below 10 degrees only three times last month; The coldest morning was recorded on June 2 with 7.4 degrees.
Those who left home that day wearing scarves and sweaters began to undress as the temperature rose to 25.7 degrees in the middle of the morning.
The city’s average minimum temperature in June was 10 degrees; this was the warmest since 2016. The hottest temperature on record was 12 degrees in 1967.
Relatively pleasant, warmer than average conditions are expected to continue for at least another week.
“There is still no real sign of a particularly strong cold outbreak,” Hines said.
“We’re seeing another massive high pressure area over Tasmania. It’s a little bit different for Queensland because there’s a bit of a southeasterly wind on the coast… but it’s certainly not a full-blown winter cold front.”
“Without a taste of the Southern Ocean, we’ll be holding on to a fairly settled, moderate and warmer than average pattern.”
But it is winter after all.
“I’m sure we’ll be hit with a cold morning in a few weeks and everyone will be in for a bit of a rude shock,” Hines said.
Research has suggested that people can only reliably remember climate for up to eight years.
You may also feel that your home is colder inside because it is not properly insulated. A lot Australian houses are very cold in winterIt is very hot in the summer and we are unprepared for natural disasters.
Southern states also experienced an unseasonably warm start to the winter. It’s been a dismal start to the ski season in Victoria and NSW due to minimal snowfall.
Skiers and lodgers are checking webcams every day to find more green grass than snow, and as school holidays approach many families are desperately trying to cancel or change bookings that have cost them an arm and a leg.
This winter has also been affected by the onset of the El Nino weather pattern, which the bureau announced on June 16, brings warmer, drier conditions.
The long-term forecast for Australia from July to September is that the year will be warmer and drier than average in the southern part of the continent, including south-east Queensland, NSW, Victoria and much of Western Australia, with a 60 per cent chance of being unusually hot.
Many climate scientists predict that 2027 will be the hottest year in history due to the delayed effects of El Niño.
With Caitlin Fitzsimmons
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