Trump claims Iran nuclear talks are going well as Tehran denies a deal

The fog of war often refers to maddening confusion about what is happening on the battlefield.

But right now the peace talks are in a fog: Are they real, are they going somewhere, and which side is telling the truth?

It is clear that President Trump, who insists that he can end the war with Iran whenever he wants, is looking for an exit ramp to declare victory and exit.

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It is equally clear that the theocratic dictatorship (at least the leaders who survived the attacks that killed the Ayatollah and others) went after them. They will declare victory because they survived the military offensive that destroyed their navy and air force.

When Trump said there were back-channel talks giving a five-day reprieve on threats to destroy energy facilities, the Iranians flatly denied it. Some leading experts were skeptical of Trump. But then Tehran said yes, there were some secret contacts.

Now we have completely different accounts of what happened.

Trump said the talks were “very good.” The other day he actually described the mullahs as making a big concession.

Trump said the Iranians had given the United States “a tremendous gift worth a tremendous amount of money.” He was cautious about it, but during questioning by CBS’ Ed O’Keefe, it was revealed that the incident had to do with oil flows and the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari mocked the administration in a video: “Has the level of your internal conflict reached the point where you can negotiate with yourself?”

“Don’t call your defeat an agreement,” he said.

And for good measure: “Someone like us would never get along with someone like you. Not now, not ever.”

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Now some of these are undoubtedly made for domestic consumption. But it looks like neither side can get any further apart.

The president has delivered a series of mixed messages about the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage where Iran’s blockade has blocked a fifth of the world’s oil traffic. He said the situation would resolve itself. He said that because the United States does not trust the strait, our European allies (those who refuse to join our intervention efforts) must resolve this issue. He also said that opening Hormuz is America’s top priority.

Iran, which equipped the strait with mines, told the UN that the waterway was open to any country that did not support US and Israeli attacks. But other countries and their insurance companies are reluctant to send billion-dollar tankers into such troubled waters.

The tanker Callisto remains anchored in Muscat, Oman, on March 10, 2026, as traffic decreases in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. (Benoit Tessier / Reuters)

This stalemate, where rising oil costs drive up gas prices and crash the stock market, reducing the value of 401Ks, is hurting the President at home. When Trump announced a halt to the bombings on Monday, the market fell for a day. If there’s one thing Wall Street hates, it’s uncertainty.

Despite signaling that the war was effectively over by saying “we won,” Trump sent at least 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne, which carries 2,200 Marines along with the USS Tripoli, to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth plays bad cop and promises to “destroy the enemy as brutally as possible” if there is no deal.

Equally unclear is who we are talking to and whether Pakistan is acting as an intermediary. Trump has talked about regime change, but that seems unlikely, and there are rumors of doing business with the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammed Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander who has occasionally taken a diplomatic approach with the West.

But with so many leaders killed and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son in hiding, no one knows how much influence Galibaf, an unsuccessful presidential candidate, still wields.

Just yesterday, according to Al Jazeera, Galibaf, referring to the Israeli prime minister, warned the administration not to sacrifice American soldiers for the sake of “Netanyahu’s dreams.” This doesn’t sound conciliatory at all.

Moreover, the Iranians are known to be difficult to negotiate with, going back on promises and moving the goalposts. Just ask Jimmy Carter.

Trump tore up the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with the Iranians when he first took office and now says he wants a deal in which Iran gives up seeking nuclear weapons. This is extremely unlikely, although US strikes last June and this month have clearly hampered their efforts.

In my opinion, Trump does not want to bomb Iran’s oil and gas facilities; This would clearly prolong the war and expand the conflict that has already spread to surrounding Arab countries. He doesn’t want to seem like he’s backing down either. No wonder he postponed a showdown.

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“President Trump is not bluffing and is ready to unleash hell,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday.

Unnamed officials told the New York Times that the Iranians do not want a temporary pause in the war, expressing concern that the United States and Israel will use the time to rebuild their forces for more air strikes.

Iran’s only real weapons right now are drones; A few of these harm Israel, while others target US military bases in the region. A drone caused a huge fire at Kuwait airport.

A report by state broadcaster Press TV confirms that Iran will not accept the US ceasefire offer. In his counter-offer of dictatorship, he would retain sole control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Among other demands, according to Press TV: Guarantees that attacks against Iran will not be resumed and payment of war damages and reparations. Iran wants any deal to be extended to include its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, which fired rockets at Israel when the war began, triggering the invasion of southern Lebanon.

President Donald Trump speaks during the inauguration of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin in the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in Washington. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)

Another state media outlet, Fars News Agency, quoted a source as saying about the ceasefire: “It does not make sense to enter into such a process with those who violate the agreement.”

The president harshly criticized the media for painting a brutally negative picture of a war that was largely an American victory. But it turns out that covering the endgame (if that’s the case) is just as challenging.

Given the current unpopularity of the war at home and the damage it is doing to the economy, Trump appears to want the deal more than Iran. For an America First candidate running against foreign wars, the prospect of a long Iraq-style quagmire would be the worst possible outcome.

“Is the United States Repeating the Mistakes That Led to Endless Wars?” the Wall Street Journal asked yesterday.

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But the handling of the latest rhetorical sniping accurately reflects the uncertainty of a process that may not deserve to be called negotiation.

First of all, it is a blinding fog.