Trump tells Iran to accept deal or face new wave of US bombing | US-Israel war on Iran

US president Donald Trump has issued a new ultimatum telling Iran to accept a deal to end the war in the Middle East or face a new wave of US bombings “at a much higher level and intensity than before”.

The social media announcement on Wednesday was the latest in a series of dramatic and often contradictory rapid changes in policy and came amid reports that the United States was making progress in stalled talks between Tehran and Washington.

“Assuming that Iran agrees to deliver what was agreed upon, which is perhaps a big assumption, this will be the end of the already legendary Epic Fury,” Trump said on the Truth Social platform, referring to the military operation he launched with Israel against Iran in February.

“If they don’t agree, the bombing will begin and, unfortunately, it will be at a much higher level and intensity than before.”

Earlier Wednesday, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.

The US-based news source reported that the US expects Iran to respond to many key points in the next 48 hours, and although nothing has been agreed upon yet, this is the closest the parties have come to an agreement since the war began.

Officials in Pakistan told the Guardian that an initial framework agreement could probably be agreed within 48 hours, but nothing was certain and talks remained “difficult”.

Late Tuesday, Trump abruptly ordered an indefinite pause in maritime efforts to guide commercial ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquid gas in normal times.

More than 800 ships and nearly 20,000 crew members were stranded west of the narrow waterway.

Iran has threatened to deploy mines, drones, missiles and fast attack ships, making passage through the strait too risky for commercial shipping and causing fuel prices to rise worldwide.

Trump wrote on social media that the decision to halt the new naval effort, dubbed “Project Freedom” just a day after it began, came after requests from “mediator Pakistan and other countries.” “Great Progress Has Been Made Towards a Full and Final Agreement” with Tehran, he said.

Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, aimed at forcing Iran to make concessions in talks to end the war, will continue, the US president said.

Trump, who will visit Beijing next week, has frequently threatened in recent weeks to restart a joint US-Israeli airstrike on Iran, but has also repeatedly signaled that he wants to see a negotiated end to the conflict.

“Things are progressing but it is too early to say whether a framework will be decided in the next 48 hours,” a senior Pakistani political source said. The focus is on achieving a permanent ceasefire and “the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides for at least 60 days.”

“This gives both sides a chance to talk about all the important issues, including uranium enrichment. But nothing has been finalized yet. Things are being discussed. We are waiting for something to emerge before the US president visits China… Iranians remain hopeful and believe that things are moving in a positive direction,” the source said.

Another Pakistani official said there was still a lack of trust between Iran and the United States.

“There is still uncertainty in the talks and nothing has been fully decided. The situation is still 50/50 and things can go either way. The moment the US lifts the blockade and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, that will be the beginning of real talks. As long as there is a blockade from both sides, talks will remain difficult. Therefore, a framework of understanding for further negotiations to lift the blockade for at least 30 to 60 days is important. This could be a confidence-building measure.” said the official.

Analysts say external guarantees are essential to any deal.

“Pakistan and Iran want China to be a guarantor, but… Does China have such power over both sides? Everyone has doubts,” the official said.

News of a potential deal caused the price of oil to fall, having risen as much as 6 percent earlier this week due to recent attacks in the Middle East.

Tehran is examining the US proposal to end the more than two-month-old war and will convey its views to mediator Pakistan, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said on Wednesday, according to media platform ISNA.

But Iran’s Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said US media reports of any deal were aimed at justifying Trump’s retreat from his latest hostile action towards the Strait of Hormuz.

Many observers believe that there are large gaps between Iran and the United States, eliminating the possibility of a ceasefire in the short term.

An Israeli source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Israel was unaware that Trump was close to a potential deal with Iran and was preparing to escalate hostilities.

Analysts have suggested that Trump will visit China next week and may be looking for something that could be portrayed as a breakthrough before he reaches Beijing. China called for a comprehensive ceasefire in the Iran war on Monday.

Beijing has close economic and political ties with Tehran, but has failed to put significant pressure on the radical Islamist Iranian regime since the start of the war. The Trump administration may want China to take advantage of this relationship to persuade the Islamic Republic to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s visit next week will be his first to China in his second term and the first by a U.S. president since Trump’s visit in 2017.

The war, which started with Israel’s killing of Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now appears to have reached a stalemate. Iran is suffering major economic losses, and these losses could increase dramatically if its oil storage capacity begins to run out; but Trump is under pressure domestically and internationally due to rising fuel prices in the US and the rest of the world.

US officials emphasized that the ceasefire in the Middle East continues and – although the conflict has not been resolved – the US’s first major military operation against Iran has been completed.

On Monday, there was a new increase in violence as Iranian missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles hit the United Arab Emirates for the first time in weeks, and clashes were also reported in the Strait of Hormuz.

US defense secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US had successfully passed through the waterway and that hundreds of commercial ships were lining up to pass.

Hegseth said, “We know that the Iranians are ashamed of this situation. They said they control the strait. They do not control it.”

Control of the strait and the threat of renewed attacks on the oil of nearby countries and other infrastructure in the Gulf are two main cards that Iran can play in negotiations to end the war and over its nuclear program.

Leaders in both Washington and Tehran believe they are close to victory and therefore appear reluctant to make significant concessions to allow the Pakistan-brokered negotiation process to make progress.

Rising oil prices and the slowing global economy as the US approaches congressional elections in November also pose a political threat to Trump. A Democratic win in one or both chambers would weaken his presidency. Trump has so far been dismissive of domestic concerns; some reports suggest he was more interested in securing what he saw as his historical legacy than any immediate political concerns.

With Associated Press and Reuters