Trump turns to Middle East allies as deal to end Iran war proves elusive | Iran
As Donald Trump, seeking a way out of the Iran war, increasingly outsources policymaking to US allies in the Middle East, the White House cannot seem to find a simple way to end the war and reopen the global shipping lanes held by Tehran.
According to Trump, the “chief dealmaker” has pursued a consistent policy against Iran aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, while eliminating threats and incentives to reach a new agreement that would also open the Strait of Hormuz.
But between his talks with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and his contacts with Gulf leaders, the US president has wavered between preparing to launch a major attack on Iran and then postponing plans for a purported strike because a deal was “attainable”, despite little sign that Tehran and Washington were any closer to making peace.
The series of events began on Sunday, when Netanyahu said he would talk to Trump about the Iran dossier, adding that Israel “also has its eyes open on Iran.” Shortly after that call, Trump wrote on TruthSocial that “the clock is ticking” on Iran. “They better move FAST or there will be nothing left of them,” he wrote. “TIME IS ESSENTIAL!”
Pakistani diplomats stated that negotiations were continuing, but did not give any indication that Iran and the USA were close to a peace agreement. At that time, the USA and Iran were sharing drafts of the peace agreement, but Trump publicly stated that he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposals. “Well, I looked at it, and if I don’t like the first sentence, I throw it away,” he said during his flight back to the US from China.
Trump is known for changing his views based on the “last man in the room”; His advisors sometimes promote major policy changes based on short speeches. According to the New York Times, Netanyahu’s presentation in the White House Situation Room in February was effective in convincing Trump to launch a joint attack against Iran, despite the skepticism of some of his top advisers.
While writing that the ceasefire with Iran was about “life support,” open source analysts also noted a significant increase in U.S. military activity in the Middle East, including the presence of dozens of KC-46 and KC-135 refueling aircraft at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport.
But amid rumors of an impending attack on Monday, Trump made an extraordinary statement saying he was canceling an attack on Iran to allow negotiations to move forward.
To explain the sudden shift in US policy, Trump said that US allies in the Gulf (Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani) had requested a pause because “serious negotiations are now being conducted and an Agreement will be made which, in their opinion, will be quite acceptable to the United States as Great Leaders and Allies.”
Trump has claimed that Iran is ready to sacrifice its nuclear program for peace, although there is little evidence from Tehran that this is true. Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate compared to the hard-line leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), confirmed the renewed talks but added that “dialogue does not mean surrender” and promised to protect the rights of the Iranian people.
Reactions to Trump’s announcement of a planned military strike against Iran were mixed and raised serious doubts. A headline in the Daily Beast summed it up succinctly: “TACO Trump Cancels ‘Planned Military Strike’ No One Knew About.” (“Taco” means “Trump always hesitates,” a jab at the US leader’s tendency to backtrack on threats during negotiations.)
Most importantly, none of the Gulf leaders appeared to be aware of Trump’s imminent plans for an attack. The Wall Street Journal had reported that Gulf leaders were “unaware” of US plans to attack Iran, instead calling for more time for talks to prevent an increase in violence that could damage energy infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
When asked later, Trump once again kept his options open, saying he was only calling for the attack to be delayed by a few days.
“I wouldn’t tell anybody when, but they knew we were very close,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “I’d say it was, I was an hour away from making the decision to go today.”
Meanwhile, Trump said Iran has only a few days left to return to negotiations.
“Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday or something, maybe early next week, for a limited time,” he said.
“We may have to deal them another big blow. I’m not sure yet,” he said.
