Trump’s Ankara summit offers a glimpse of America’s new grand strategy

Sitting next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, President Donald Trump fielded more than field reporters’ questions. His remarks covered Iran, Ukraine, NATO, Türkiye, Greenland and China, touching nearly every front of America’s strategic interests.

To most commentators, the press conference appeared to be just another free exchange with reporters. To one strategist, this looked like something completely different: the public emergence of American grand strategy.

I spent years at the Pentagon working on strategy and policy at the national level. Grand strategies rarely announce themselves in official National Security Strategy documents; More often, they emerge through repeated decisions and presidential statements that gradually reveal the underlying logic, and that logic was on unusual display in Ankara this week.

TRUMP CALLED NATO BEFORE THE SUMMIT, SAID IT WAS ‘RIDICULOUS’ FOR THE USA TO CONTINUE ON THE ‘ONE-SIDED ROAD’

Deterrence before diplomacy

The first principle is deterrence in front of diplomacy. Trump’s disappointment with his NATO allies over the Iran war was clearly evident. “Italy rejected us, Germany rejected us, and France rejected us,” he told reporters, then asked why the United States should continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on allies “who are not on our side.”

This was classic Trump, but it was more than a complaint. This revealed how he measured alliances: not by proclamations or polite statements, but by whether allies showed up when America took action. For Trump, loyalty is operational, not emotional.

The broader point is that diplomacy without a credible force is rarely successful. Force restores deterrence, deterrence creates pressure, and pressure creates the conditions for negotiation. Tehran, Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang are watching to see whether America still has the will to act.

Grand strategies rarely announce themselves in official National Security Strategy documents; More often, they emerge through repeated decisions and presidential statements that gradually reveal the underlying logic, and that logic was on unusual display in Ankara this week.

The same logic was reflected in Trump’s Ukraine controversy. He believes that if a credible force can gain diplomatic leverage with Iran, it could also help end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.

Ending wars strongly

DON’T LOOK NOW, BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP MAY HAVE SAVED UKRAINE. JUST ASK THE RUSSIANS

The second principle is that wars should be concluded from positions of strength rather than being waged indefinitely. Trump said he met with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “I think they both want to make a deal,” he told reporters, adding that he hoped the war would be resolved “hopefully soon.”

No serious strategist should assume that peace is simple, imminent, or costless. Russia remains the aggressor, and any agreement that rewards conquest will invite more danger, not less. Yet grand strategy seeks results rather than endless commitment; The real question is whether diplomacy is backed by sufficient force to produce a lasting and just solution.

Alliances as multipliers, not dependencies

The third principle is that alliances should become multipliers, not dependencies. NATO remains indispensable, but no alliance can remain healthy if one country bears a disproportionate share of the burden while others expect permanent American support.

This is why NATO’s defense industry announcements in Ankara are important. European allies tried to show Trump that they were turning high defense spending into real military capability. The Netherlands, for example, is investing with Britain in new amphibious ships, joining 10 allies in replacing obsolete AWACS aircraft, and leading production of American Stinger, AMRAAM and PAC-3 missiles in Europe. This is more than accounting. It is strategic capacity.

NATO’s defense industry announcements in Ankara are important. European allies tried to show Trump that they were turning high defense spending into real military capability. (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The Ukrainian war revealed a disturbing truth: Modern wars are won by industrial endurance, not tactics alone. Missiles must be modified, interceptors must be produced, and production must be automated for speed rather than headlines. Grand strategy requires factories and political will to sustain production; Defense spending, which never becomes a deployable fighting force, is merely a budget cap.

Geography still shapes strategy

The fourth principle is that geography still shapes strategy, even in an era increasingly defined by advanced computing systems, cyber operations, and space capabilities. Türkiye is a formidable ally, but also strategically indispensable as it sits at the crossroads of the Black Sea, the Middle East and NATO’s southern flank.

This explains Trump’s desire to revisit US-Turkish defense issues. He said the United States is “going to be taking the sanctions off,” referring to penalties imposed after Turkey purchased Russia’s S-400 system, and called the question of selling Turkey F-35 fighter jets “certainly something we will consider.” Türkiye’s acquisition of Russia has created real security problems, and both Israel and Congress have objections. But the strategic logic is simple: Geography has consequences.

The same goes for the Arctic. Trump’s renewed Greenland statements were controversial but fit the same pattern. He said Greenland “should be controlled by the United States, not Denmark,” arguing that Denmark had done too little for a region vital to America’s security. Greenland once anchored America’s Cold War shield against Soviet bombers; Today, it straddles the Arctic sea lanes that Russia contests and China keeps an eye on, making its geography more important, not less.

Strategic prioritization and the China problem

Every successful grand strategy requires disciplined prioritization. America cannot do everything everywhere forever. Not every carrier strike group, Patriot battery, and trained brigade operating in one area exists elsewhere. Grand strategy is the disciplined arrangement of limited national resources.

This brings the discussion back to China. As Europe assumes greater responsibility for its own defense, America gains the flexibility to focus on this century’s defining competition: Communist China, which could become the most important target of Trump’s emerging strategic framework.

Beijing is combining machine learning systems, autonomous platforms, cyber capabilities, and advanced manufacturing in a strategy that will challenge American leadership. In “Preparation for World War III,” I argued that the military rise of Ukraine, the Middle East, the Arctic, North Korea, and China cannot be considered separately; these are interconnected demands for limited American power. In “The New AI Cold War,” I argued that machine intelligence has become the central arena of this competition, and that America cannot prevail if it continues to overextend while capable allies underinvest in their own defense.

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The future balance of power will not be determined by rhetoric alone. It will be shaped by industrial capacity, technological superiority, alliance reliability and national will.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed President Donald Trump, who paid an official visit to Türkiye before the 36th NATO Heads of State and Government Summit to be held in Ankara on July 7, 2026, at Ankara Airport. (Doğukan Keskinkılıç/Havuz, via REUTERS)

Whether or not President Trump’s policies are supported, strategists must understand what is shaping up. Great strategies rarely announce themselves with a single speech; They emerge through repeated decisions that gradually reveal the underlying logic. Ankara argued that such a logic now existed: deterrence backed by industrial might, alliances built on reciprocity, geography respected rather than ignored, and American power organized around this century’s defining competition.

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America may be witnessing the emergence of a grand strategy before it is even formally written. Grand strategies are not ultimately measured in speeches, summits or press conferences. They are measured by whether they keep the peace, deter aggression, strengthen alliances, and secure the nation for the next generation.

Ankara offered a brief look at this strategy. History will determine whether it will be successful or not.

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